Let’s start this week off with a nice video from No Laying Up exploring The Concession Golf Club. Also, your Hack was finally able to play golf yesterday. It was my first full round since February 5th, when we played Plantation Lakes against the boys from Ocean City. Cripple Creek is finally open after a VERY long spell of bad weather. I played ok – 4 over on a soggy wet course with greens that haven’t been cut or rolled in forever. Overall, a very nice day on the links. Now, on to the WGC at The Concession.
The Concession has never hosted a PGA Tour event, but it did host the NCAA Championships in 2015. Our big boy Bryson won that event. I’m still hesitant to put any hard earned bankroll on DeChambeau, but 20-1 is a good value so I’ll take a piece. I do think the event will probably be won by one of the Top players, but I’m still going to sprinkle some long odds outright bets among some of the long shots at +8000 and higher. My One and Done (OAD) pick for the week is Jon Rahm. Finau 2nd place finish last week jumped me from 145th to 33rd in my OAD pool so I need a strong Rahm finish to keep moving up.
I going somewhat heavy on Rahm, Bryson, Hatton, and “Dr. Evil” P. Reed this week. Here’s the card. I’ll probably be adding some 3 Ball bets later this morning for today’s round.
Betting Card
Outrights
Units
Odds
Rahm
1.00
1000
DeChambeau
0.50
2000
Hatton
0.50
2000
Reed
0.45
3000
Im
0.30
3500
Scheffler
0.30
4000
Niemann
0.30
5500
Zalatoris
0.20
6000
Fitzpatrick
0.30
6000
Leishman
0.20
8000
Wolff
0.15
9000
Hojgaard
0.30
11000
Griffin
0.30
12500
Champ
0.10
15000
Detry
0.10
15000
5 Units Total on Outrights
First Round Leader
Units
Odds
Brooks
0.40
3000
Scheffler
0.30
4000
Wolff
0.30
6000
1 Unit Total on FRL
Top 20
Units
Odds
Griffin
1.00
300
Woodland
1.00
350
2 Units Total on Top 20
Tournament Matchups
Units
Odds
Berger > Simpson
1.35
-135
Zalatoris > Homa
2.60
-130
Keopka > DeChambeau
2.00
135
Im > Scheffler
1.00
100
NOTE: I’m betting Keopka over Bryson as a small “hedge” in case the big boy falters. Probably not smart. We’ll see,
Now we know why Max Homa is your Hack’s favorite golfer! After hitting a wedge to a little over 3 feet on the 72nd hole at the Genesis, in true Hack fashion he misses the putt for birdie and has to go into a playoff against Tony Finau, who shot the round of the day (64).
How cool was it that the first playoff hole was #10 instead of replaying 18. With no crowds, the PGA used the deadly, drivable par 4 as the first playoff hole this year. To be honest, when Max hit is drive came to rest against a tree left of the green, I thought Finau would finally get his first win since the PR event a couple of years ago and break his remarkable streak of 38 top 10s in the last 120 starts. But no, Max hooded and flicked a little sand wedge onto the green and made par, while Finau left his 10 footer for the win short. When Finau couldn’t get up and down from the bunker on the 2nd playoff hole, my guy made par for the win and paid off your Hack’s 2 winning tickets at 55-1 and 50-1. It was a fantastic Sunday night sweat. Here’s the chip from Max.
All of this led to a very good week at the Genesis – outright winner, 3 of 4 tournament match-up winners and 4-2-2 in daily match-ups. Overall, we ended up 33.7 units to bring the year-to-date bankroll to a positive 21.4 units. This kind of thing doesn’t happen very often when betting PGA tour golf, but I’m happy to have cashed the tickets.
On to a WGC event this week at the Concession in Florida (this tournament was moved from Mexico because of Covid) and it will be great to see this course on TV. I was listening to a podcast this morning from “No Laying Up” and the host said that he’d heard from a couple of Concession members that they were slowing down the greens in preparation for the PGA event. Slowing them down! They have their Member Guest the next week and they want to be able to dial the greens back up after the tour leaves – crazy.
There will also be an opposite field event in PR for the pros that do not qualify for the World Golf Championship. Two (2) betting opportunities this week – I’m debating running with this hot hand or being conservative and protecting the bankroll. Let’s go!
No bets yesterday and I’m happy – must have seen the high wind delay and a Sunday morning finish to the 3rd round coming? This afternoon should be fun as Sam Burns fell back shooting 74 and bringing DJ, Homa, Fitzpartrick and others back into the game. With DJ only 2 shots back and playing with Burns in the final group, there will be a lot of pressure on Burns. DJ is at +160 to win and Burns is +325. I’m using the remainder of my free bet funds to make a live bet on DJ as a hedge to my outrights on Homa, who is only 2 back.
Two (2) matchup plays today. I’m taking Homa (-110) for 1.1 units over Fitzpatrick and Finau (-120) for 1.2 units over Hovland.
The Cut:
A 64 followed up by a 66? At Riv? Sam Burns is torching the place and leading at -12, 5 shots ahead of Tyler McCumber, Kokrak, DJ, and Niemann. My boy – Max Homa – is at -6. Place a live bet on Sam Burns to win? You’ll only get +225, while DJ is at +250. Plus, Burns ranks 167th in third-round scoring, with Sunday not providing much of a respite (144th), according to PGA Tour stats. Although he tied the course record for 36 hole score for the tournament, I think I’ll pass. Your Hack thinks it’s more likely that he’ll back up or will be caught by Sunday.
And, how about McCumber playing with a bandaged hand because a complete fingernail had to be removed after a run in with his hotel window? Hurts to even think about it.
Although the official Homa > Smith bet lost yesterday, the free bet on Spieth’s 3 ball victory resulted in a 1.5 unit win for the day. Your Hack also won all of the tournament match-ups as each opponent missed the cut – up another 5 units. Some big names missed the cut, including some of my outrights – Big Boy Bryson and Bubba. JT and Rory are also going home for the weekend, but I had no money on them fortunately.
Seven (7) of your Hack’s outright bets made it through the cut and Homa, Cantlay and Cam Davis are in the top 10. Should have a good sweat over the weekend, especially with Max (0.5 units @ +5100 on 2 tickets) – and he’s only 6 shots back. Fingers crossed.
No bets on today’s matches yet. Want to look at the early players, the wind, etc. and might pick a later match to bet prior to tee times later this afternoon.
Friday Morning Update:
The Big Man couldn’t handle Riv yesterday – Bryson shot a smooth 75 (+4) in round one. After the foul ball drive on 18 that went way, way right, Bryson said “Man, this driver is so sensitive!” You know it’s 2021 when even golf clubs are snowflakes. Word has it that he was grinding on the range under the lights last night to work things out.
Bryson on the range and then driving home in LA
Other big names in danger of missing the weekend are JT, with a rocking 77 (+6) and Rory, with a so so 73 (+2). Even Morikowa is at even par. The other big names? Rahm 70 (-1), Brooks 68 (-3), DJ 68 (-3), and Spieth 68 (-3). The lead is held by Sam Burns who shot a blistering 64 (-7) and has a 2 shot lead Fitzpatrick and my guy, Max Homa. Remember I have Max at 50-1 to win this thing.
My head to head match yesterday was a push, but I naturally lost all my first round leader bets because I stayed off Burns. So down 2.75 units so far on my “official bets”. However, an interesting thing happened yesterday – the online sportsbook that I use had given me $250 in free bets so I decided to use $50 of the free money to bet on Niemann over Piercy and Duncan in yesterday’s 3-ball match. I placed the bet early yesterday and then realized I had NOT checked the “Free Roll” box on the betting form so I had a nice sweat yesterday afternoon with a real $50 on the line. Luckily, Niemann came through and I won a real $45.45. And, I still have the free bet money which I’ll probably use today.
For today’s matches, I’m “officially” placing 1 unit on Homa (-105) over Cam Smith and your Hack is using $50 in free bets to put 1/2 on Homa (+100) over Walker/Cam Smith and 1/2 on Spieth (+105) over Munoz/Kuchar.
It’s time for your Hack to start making a comeback with his PGA Tour betting bankroll. Currently down a little over 12 units for the year, let’s see if the “Riv” can get us on the road back. Two (2) big questions this week: Will every player attempt to drive the par 4 10th hole? And, will Bryson, playing for the first time in three (3) months, dominate the course?
The Genesis Invitational at Riviera CC is an invitational event featuring 120 players (Berger withdrew earlier in the week) with the cut after round 2 for the top 65 and ties. The best players in the world are here, and the course tends to play as one of the more difficult tracks on the PGA TOUR’s rotation outside of the the major championship venues. Again, no spectators this week.
Riviera Country Club is a classic Par 71 playing just over 7300 yards and features fast poa green surfaces. I think it clearly favors bombers, premium iron play from 170 and out, and grinders that can get up and down when green are missed. Course experience and knowledge around Riv has proven critical when you look at past winners. 14 of the last 15 winners at the Genesis have played the event at least 5 times. The sportsbooks have the winning score prop at around -13.5. The conditions this week should be absolutely perfect and fairways running as firm and fast as kikuya grass will allow. I’d expect the best players in the world to rise to the top, and don’t love the outlook for longshots – but I but for fun as well.
As you know, I like to bet long shots generally. Because of the course, I’m going to sprinkle in some lower odds bets with larger amounts to start rebuilding the bankroll. Let’s see how it goes.
A quick update: The Hack and Mrs. Hack received their second Covid vaccine shot this week and no reactions noted. We are looking forward to begin venturing out and reclaiming a social life over the next few weeks.
Exciting finish for sure, but not for your Hack’s bankroll. Happy President’s Day. We continue to be sidelined by the weather and course closures here in DelMarVa and I’m not sure when I’ll be able to actually play golf next. It’s been 10 days since playing a complete 18 hole round.
Daniel Berger won for the second time since the tour came back from the Covid hiatus last year cementing his comeback from injury which saw him fall out of the Top 100 in the World Golf Rankings. This win projects to move him into the 13th spot. Jordan was not able to grab the win, but his T4 last week and T3 this week seems to indicate that he’s definitely on the road back from oblivion. How about poor Nate Lashley who’s 4 putt cost him the lead on the back nine? And, Maverick McNealy- birdieing 5 of the last 8 holes for a back nine 31 – almost closing the deal added to the excitement. His 4th round 66 left him one shot back of Berger for a solo 2nd. He did win the award for “club twirl” of the week however. Danielle Kang was over the moon for her boyfriend.
No a bad 3 iron on 18 to make birdie and tie for the lead. It was good for a potential playoff until Berger smashed a 3-wood to 30 feet and made the putt for eagle.
Your hack was riding Cantlay this week and his putting left him on the back 9 and he fell to 3rd place tie with Spieth. One the positive side, it was my first One and Done pick to make the cut this year. Ironically, I had Berger last week in Pheonix where he naturally missed the cut.
My week ended down 6.5 units (down 12.3 units YTD). I was 2 units down on match-ups and none of my Top 5, 10, or 20 picks came through. Did I hear someone say that betting on PGA Tour golf is hard? Yeah, I remember – it is.
On to the Genesis Invitational next week at Riviera where Tiger will play host. The field is strong, but the host naturally won’t be playing coming off his back surgery. Adam Scott was last year’s winner. Time to start looking at stats and odds and get this ship back on course.
Spieth! Is today the day? I really, really would like to see Jordan pull through and win today, but he’s only +160 so not worth the wager. Your Hack’s fingers will be crossed anyway. On the other hand, I still have my Cantlay ticket to win and he’s only 2 back. It should be a fun day. Yesterday’s matches resulted in a push on the Grace wager, but a 2 unit loss on Reavie (ouch) who didn’t play well. We’re back at it in the final round with 2.4 units on N. Taylor > Steele, 1.2 units on NeSmith > Moore and 1.2 units on Piercy > Hubbard.
Saturday Morning Update:
My guys – Cantlay and Bhatia – backed up a little yesterday, but we still have three (3) players in the top 4 and only two (2) of the outright bets failed to make the cut. I’ve added outrights on Molinari (0.2 units @ +6600) and Kizzaire (0.1 units @ +15000) as they both shot up the board yesterday and look to be playing well. I hit with the Spieth bet yesterday, but Homa lost by a shot to Casey so we only netted a 0.1 unit win for the day. Today, your Hack is taking Reavie over Hoffman (2.4 units) and Grace over Hubbard (1.1 units). The weather looks to be tough at Pebble today and Reavie is a good wind player. Grace is also steady and Hubbard had a tough day yesterday almost missing the cut.
Friday Morning Update:
Before I get to the update, take a look at this driver “stinger” from Si Woo Kim yesterday. Roasted, with only a 13 foot apex. As the announcer said: “saucey . .”
Your Hack had a nice hit yesterday with Knox (+135) over Herman/Mitchell for a 1 unit win. I’m coming back with two (2) 3-Ball bets for today’s round @ 1 unit each. Homa (+170) over Casey/Mickelson and Spieth (+110) over Fowler/Taylor. Also feeling good about my outright ticket on Cantlay (leads after tying the course record 62) and my Top 5 and Top 20 tickets on Bahtia who’s only 2 back after hitting all 18 greens a Pebble yesterday. LFG boys!
This year, because of COVID-19 restrictions, play will be held at Pebble Beach and Spyglass Hill, with no spectators or pro-am players. After the 36-hole cut, the final two rounds will be played at Pebble Beach. The winner of this week’s AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am will earn $1.404 million from the $7.8 million purse. Second place is a mere $850,200!
As I said, because of COVID-19 precautions, the customary field of business, sports and celebrity amateurs will not compete this year alongside PGA Tour players. Thank goodness – Your Hack doesn’t really want to watch even worse hacks hack up Pebble. Maybe the course setup will be a little tougher with the Am’s there as well. There have been some significant withdrawals – Dustin Johnson for one. There are 0 top 10 players in the field this week.
Pebble #18
The tournament is the fourth event on the five-week West Coast Swing, which concludes next week with the Genesis Invitational at Riviera Country Club in Pacific Palisades, Calif. The elevated status of the Genesis and the cash grab at the Concession in Florida in the next few weeks have probably left the Pebble Beach Pro Am in the wind for the top players.
This might be the week for long shots. Nick Taylor won this event last year at +16000 (160/1 odds). I’m going a little lighter this week and betting more of these longer odds players.
For a short odds bet, the play must be Patrick Cantlay at 10-1. Cantlay almost won two weeks ago at PGA West, and he has not finished worse than 17th since his victory at the Zozo. Cantlay is primed for another solid season and I’m hoping this week can produce a win – 1 full unit on Cantlay at +1000. I’ve also taken Max Homa who is my FOMO bet this week, even at the 33-1 odds. Overall, I’m placing 2.8 units on outright winners this week and will hold some of my bankroll for live betting once all boys are on Pebble Saturday and Sunday.
Outrights
Winner
Units
Odds
Cantlay
1.00
1000
Homa
0.35
3300
Day
0.30
3500
Davis
0.25
4000
Norlander
0.20
6000
Malnati
0.20
6000
Dahmen
0.20
6500
Hubbard
0.15
8000
Varner III
0.15
11000
Top 5, 10, 20 Wagers
Top 5
Units
Odds
Bahtia
0.20
5000
Baker
0.20
6600
Top 10
Units
Odds
Streelman
0.50
300
Top 20
Units
Odds
Bahtia
0.40
750
Baker
0.20
1400
Pebble #9
Concerns About Betting on the PGA Tour
Justin Thomas, a member of the player’s advisory council has laid out some specific concerns about betting on PGA Tour results. You can read about it at the link below. What are your thoughts about this? Valid concern?
Just can’t leave without one last look at Pebble . . . here’s the 4th hole. Good luck this week and I’ll update this post with any tournament match-ups and Thursday match wagers prior to the first tee time tomorrow.
Congratulation to the Bash Bros! DJ takes the crown in Saudi Arabia and Brooks Keopka wins the WPO.
Your Hack didn’t see that coming today, but Brooksy’s win at Pheonix saved the betting card. Our pre-tournament wager on Keopka at +40000 (40/1) paid off handsomely, although it was only 0.25 units from the bankroll. We ended the tournament up 2.73 units thanks to the Brooks’ outright and Harold Varner III sneaking into the Top 20, and breaking even on our tournament and daily betting matchups. Of course, I’m kicking myself for betting 2 units on Jordan to win early Sunday morning. It could of been a really nice week without that wager.
Brooks stormed back with 2 eagles on the day, shooting 65 and winning by one shot over KH Lee and Xander. After missing 3 straight cuts, nagging hip and knee injuries, and splitting with his coach – Claude Harmon III – Keopka has again become part of the golf conversation. He crashed Jordan’s and Xander’s hopes as both of the leaders played poorly to bring the rest of the field back into the tournament Sunday afternoon. His eagle chip in sealed it on the 17th hole.
I thought Golf Digest put it well last night – “The measure of Koepka as a stone-cold hard-ass was evident not with his chip-in for the lead, but for his second shot into the green at the par-5 15th hole. Playing partner James Hahn, who held a three-stroke lead with eight to go, had just hooked his second shot into the water. Hitting next, Koepka blistered a 6-iron from 239 yards just over the flag, setting up an 18-footer for eagle. Ruthless stuff. He two-putted for birdie to climb into a share of the lead.”
Shane Ryan wrote a live blog during Jordan’s final round yesterday and captured how I felt as a Spieth fanboy. So much hope, too much reality for sure. Click on the link below to read.
On to Pebble Beach this week. We are now down 3.1 units year-to-date. Yes, it’s hard to wager on golf, but it’s fun. Looks like there is only a slim chance of playing some golf this week due to weather, but your Hack’s fingers are crossed.d
My goodness! What else could happen? DJ wins in the Kingdom, even after being used as a sniper by the Saudi Crown Prince to eliminate a political opponent. Side note: He’s won 10 times since Jordan Spieth’s last win.
Then we have Spieth doing Spieth things and shooting a blistering 61 at the WMO and he’s not tied for the lead with Zander. What’s this world coming to?
Your Hack did ok yesterday winning Homa over Palmer and pushing Stanley over An. My outrights are not looking great though as Keopka is the only bet even close to the top. This tournament can be won from behind though, so I’m keeping the faith.
When I looked at the odds last night, Jordan was +220 to win (that’s $2.20 for every $1 bet Mr. Boteler). Your Hack took the bait and put 2 units on the Golden Child.
So I guess my relatively conservative play from yesterday was a mistake as Spieth’s eagle on the back nine put him ahead of Billy Ho by 1 shot – another booked loss.
Two (2) plays today: Homa (+100) over Palmer and Stanley (+100) over An for today’s round. Both for 1 unit.
Burns (T4), NeSmith (T8) and Keopka (T8) are currently in the Top 10 for my outright winner bets, but 6 of my guys missed the cut.
Friday AM Update:
I squeaked through yesterday winning the Fritelli 3-ball with him shooting only even par. Fortunately, I’d put a full unit on him as “Killer Kieth” Mitchell (0.5 units) shot +4 and was smoked by his 3-ball partners. Alas, no hit on my first round leader (FRL) bets this week. NeSmith and Hubbard (Hubb’s) tied for FRL at -8.
Only one (1) bet Friday – Horschel (+120) over Spieth/Pan. 1 Unit – should be a relatively conservative play.
Thursday AM Update: Today’s 3-Balls and Tournament Match-ups
Your Hack updated his betting card this morning putting 0.50 units on Norlander > List (-110), Straka > Knox (-110), and Redman > Moore (+115) in Tournament Match-ups. For today’s 3-Balls – 1 unit on Frittelli > Long/Merritt (+150) and 0.50 units on Mitchell > Zack Johnson/Poston (+220).
I also choose Webb Simpson Daniel Berger for my One and Done (OAD) contest this week. My OAD picks in the prior two (2) tournaments both missed the cut so take that for what it’s worth. I’m currently DFL in that contest!
Welcome to the “Greatest Show on Grass” in Arizona. This week’s Pheonix Open features a stronger field compared to past history and is even allowing about 5,000 fans to attend the event. The normal “shit show” on the par 3 16th stadium hole will not be as raucous, but it will be nice to see fans at a golf event again. Webb Simpson was the winner in 2020 and I like him to finish well again this week. I’m not betting him however as I think this is more of a bomber’s course. His putting may make me wish I’d bet him though. We’ll see.
Your Hack’s betting card is a little more extensive this week, as I am playing First Round Leaders for the first time this year. The last two (2) tournaments had players on multiple courses so I stayed away. Here’s the card.
First Round Leader Bets: 1.7 Units
First Round Leader
Units
Odds
Berger
0.30
2800
Zalatoris
0.30
3300
Im
0.30
3300
Palmer
0.30
3500
Watson
0.25
4000
Dahmen
0.10
11000
Gordon
0.10
15000
Outrights – Overall Winner: 2.7 Units
Outrights
Units
Odds
Im
0.40
3000
Watson
0.25
4000
Brooks
0.25
4000
Zalatoris
0.25
4500
Connors
0.15
6600
Burns
0.15
7000
Homa
0.20
8000
Steele
0.125
8000
Kirk
0.125
9000
Norlander
0.10
10000
Fritelli
0.10
12500
Straka
0.10
12500
Clark
0.10
12500
Redman
0.10
17500
Higgs
0.10
20000
Holmes
0.10
20000
NeSmith
0.10
22500
Top 5 – 10 – 20 Bets: 2.9 Units
Top 5
Units
Odds
Vanrner III
0.30
4000
Redman
0.30
3300
Kirk
0.50
1800
Norlander
0.40
2000
Top 10
Units
Odds
Fowler
0.40
400
Reavie
0.20
1300
Top 20
Units
Odds
Homa
0.50
300
Varner III
0.30
650
I’ll be spending some time today researching tournament match-ups and Thursday 3-balls. The betting card will be updated later tonight or early Thursday before play begins.
The USGA and R&A issued some long awaited direction on the “distance debate” including a proposal to reduce the maximum driver shaft length from 48″ to 46″. Here is a summary of their proposals from Golf Digest if you are interested.
Wow! What a weekend in the Golf world at Torrey Pines. My boys didn’t come through on Sunday and, as a result, your Hack ended up down 4.4 units for the week. I lost all of the Sunday matches I’d bet and won only one of the tournament matchups. This brings me to down 5.8 units for the year. Not great, but remember that golf betting is hard. You can review my betting card (if you are even interested) here: Farmers Betting Card
Now, let’s talk about the real story. Patrick “The Slayer” Reed. I cannot express how much I dislike this guy. Sure, he can play golf, but he is a cheater. He’s been a cheater since day 1 and continues to be a cheater. He won the tournament by 5 at 14 under and shot 68 on Sunday with all the controversy of Saturday’s “embedded” ball ruling. I think Sunday’s performance just shows that he is a sociopath. That’s why the 11th ranked player in the world has to buy his clothes at Dick’s Sporting Goods. It’s time for other players on Tour to speak out and to make it loud and clear. The Slayer’s antics have been going on for far too long and the PGA Tour has been effectively condoning his behavior. This article by Gary van Sickle provides a good recap.
Captain America is now golf’s most hated villain – it’s great content for Twitter and the media, but a sad day for golf.
Feel good story of the week – Paul Casey wins at the Omega Dubai Desert Classic. Here is a link to a recap and a nice story about the 43 year old. “I feel like I’ve regained my youth,”
This week is the Pheonix Open which is usually the greatest shit show on earth is officially called “The Greatest Show on Grass”. There will be some spectators allowed, but my guess is that the usual over the top behavior will be dialed down this year. Last year’s winner was Webb Simpson. Weird happening this week? Riggs, from the Barstool Sports’ podcast Foreplay, has been invited to play in the Wednesday Pro-Am. Good luck buddy.
The weather here continues to force the closing of our course – Cripple Creek. We are currently riding through a winter storm with snow, then rain, then snow and some harsh winds. Hopefully by Wednesday your Hack can get back out to play. Fingers crossed.
Two bets yesterday – see below – and both came through, nice. On the other hand, I only have Scott (T2), Palmer (T8) and Zalatoris (T8) left in the Top 10 for the outright win. Zalatoris was the only one to shoot under par Saturday. Need one of these guys to go low today. Homa is 5 shots back at T17, but will have to pass a lot of players to win. A 62 or 63 might do it?
My tournament match-ups – see below – are not doing well. Deki, my biggest bet, is 8 shots down to Hovland and Straka, who’s playing like trash, is 6 shots down to Ghim. Finau and Xander are tied after 3 rounds so that’s a toss up. Not looking great.
My final round bets – Lewis over Poston (-105) and Molinari over List (+105) – 1 unit each.
Adds on Saturday Morning:
Well that worked out. Palmer smoked English & Holmes in their 3-ball and I covered by lost bet from the opening round. Two (2) plays added for today (Round 3): 1 Unit on Cam Davis > Woodland/Huh @+150 and 1 Unit on Norlander > Straka @ -110.
My outrights are looking good for the weekend as your Hack has 6 guys within 4 shots of the lead which is held by Hovland at -9. More importantly, Hadwin is at +9000, Noren is at +10000, Homa is at +12500! LFG fellas!
POS
PLAYER
SCORE
R1
R2
R3
R4
TOTAL
T2
Adam Scott
-8
67
69
—
—
136
T2
Ryan Palmer
-8
66
70
—
—
136
T11
Alex Noren
-6
64
74
—
—
138
T14
Will Zalatoris
-5
68
71
—
—
139
T14
Adam Hadwin
-5
69
70
—
—
139
T14
Max Homa
-5
71
68
—
—
139
Adds on Friday Morning:
Outrights: Leishman .20 units @ +5000 & Hadwin .15 units @ +9000 | Both played well on the harder South Course yesterday and have the easier North Course today to make up ground. Also – placed 1 unit on Palmer over English & Holmes at +120. I lost the Thursday 3-ball wager that I thought was a lock as Hossler played unbelievably well so I’m hoping to get back even betting Palmer today.
The Farmers Insurance Open starts today at Torrey Pines, which will also host the U.S. Open this year in June. The field is not as strong in 2021 as years past. Tiger’s nursing his ailing back. DJ is not playing and JT is over in the desert.
Your Hack is fading the favorites this year – Rahm +650, Rory +800, Xander +1100, and Finau +1800. What fun is gambling if you bet low odds, right? I’ve bet 3 units overall among outright winners (see card below) and have five (5) bets at 100-1 or better, including Max Homa who was in the final group last week, but had a poor last round. Max is my favorite player because he acts like such a normal guy, he’s a blast on social media, and his podcast with Shane Bacon (Get A Grip) is sometimes hysterical. Also, he’s proven he can win – see Wachovia (Wells Fargo Championship) in 2019.
Outrights
Units
Odds
Matsuyama
0.40
2500
Wolff
0.30
3300
Scott
0.30
4000
Palmer
0.30
5000
Woodland
0.20
5500
Smith
0.20
5500
Davis
0.20
6000
Zalatoris
0.30
6000
Noren
0.20
10000
Homa
0.10
12500
Huh
0.20
12500
List
0.20
15000
Holmes
0.10
17500
For Tournament Match-ups, I’m betting 5 units favoring longer hitters on the Torrey Pines track. My biggest bet is on Matsuyama to best Hovland. I’m thinking Deki’s irons are coming around so that he will pepper flags and not have to rely too much on that shaky putting. Finau should be able to beat Xander easily. Tony is in great form (although he can’t seem to win) while Schauffele has been struggling recently.
Match
Units
Odds
Matsuyama>Hovland
2.00
-130
Brooks>English
1.00
125
Straka>Ghim
1.00
-115
Finau>Schauffele
1.00
100
My last bet is a Thursday 3-ball match where I’m taking Cam Davis to roast Bo Hossler and Zhang. Short odds, but I want to start the week off with a win.
Match
Units
Odds
Davis>Hossler/Zhang
1.00
-105
That’s it for the Farmers – TV coverage starts today at Noon on Golf Channel.
We had a somewhat decent day yesterday (Wednesday) and your Hack was able to get in a round with the boys. Mr. Robel’ organized a 1-2-3 game with three (3) threesomes playing. That’s one (1) ball on the par 5’s, two (2) on the par 4’s and all three (3) on the the par 3’s. It might be the last round of play for a while as we had a slight covering of snow overnight and the forecast for Friday is 32 degrees with wind from the northwest at 25 MPH, gusting to 35 MPH. “You’ll have that . . .” as the Dog used to say.
I think I’ll just watch some of the great content produced by the European Tour to get through this stretch.
But, let’s get back to yesterday’s round. The Voice, Pip, and the Councilman went off first, followed by your Hack, the Senator, and Reid (he who hates to be called HRD2). Mr. Robel’, Dewey and Witmer followed us. Although we started off strong with Reid’s birdie on #1, we quickly blew up going 6 over par on the #2 (playing as a par 3) and #3 (a real par 3).
[The Club has taken out some trees to the left of #2 and the grounds crew is working on installation of additional irrigation so that we can finally grow some grass in that area. To protect the workers, we have a temporary tee in the fairway and are playing the hole as a par 3.]
We made a slow recovery as Reid birdied #4 and I had a net birdie on #5 and the Senator added a net birdie on #9, which allowed our group to finish the front in a respectable 2 over par in the format. Unfortunately, the Voice’s group finished lower and took the money for the front nine.
We started the back 9 strong as Reid birdied #10, your Hack added a birdie on #12, and both Reid and the Senator birdied #13 to get us to 5 under par through #14. However, we lost a shot on #15 as I made the only par and lost 3 shots on #16 as we all made bad bogeys on the par 3. Although we were able to scratch a couple of shots back on the final two (2) holes, we ended the back at 3 under, tied with Mr. Robel’s trio. Unfortunately, we lost on a match of cards.
The bright spot of the day for our group was Reid carding 4 natural birdies, three (3) of which cleared for skins. The Councilman also had a strong day scooping up an additional three (3), or was it four (4) skins. My memory is shaky here but the best line of the day came in the bar afterward: “You’ve bypassed Yogi, you’re now a Mickey Mantle!” Of course, Mr. Robel’ meant that the Councilman would play as a 7 next match instead of his more traditional 9 handicap.
Your Hack’s day was salvaged by our Assistant Ryan. He joined us to play a Nassau against me. Without a warmup, Ryan quite literally gave me all his money when he agreed to give me 2 shots a side. You just can’t do that when you are fighting a big left miss off the tee and can’t dial in the green speeds. Your Hack played ok – only 1 birdie – but Ryan struggled. They’ll definitely be a revenge match coming down the pike.
Be on the lookout for my Farmers Insurance Open betting card coming out later this morning. Keep it in the short grass.
