Gambling

More like a Concussion – The Concession Recap

Big congratulations to Collin Morikawa for a terrific win. I debated putting money on him at 50-1 after the first round, but mistakenly held off. A bummer for sure, but I just wasn’t sold on his putting. But the dude can flush iron after iron like it’s the easiest thing in the world. Kudos for sure. I’m buying some stock in Hovland as well. He’s seems like such a great kid and came through with a T2nd at this event. Finally a shoutout to Nelly Korda for taking down the 2nd LPGA event of the year. BTW, her sister won the first one. This sister act is strong.

I do believe The Concession should be a permanent PGA Tour stop. Yesterday was very exciting coming down the stretch as the leaderboard was stacked with great players and the chance of a 3 or 4 shot swing was in play on many of the closing holes. How much fun was it watching ball after ball roll off the green on 13 on Saturday? With severe runoffs around the greens and tricky greens, this course can blow up a round. Case in point, Kisner was playing great and in contention the first two (2) days and then shot 80/72 over the weekend. Or, young Hovland’s quad on #9 to end Friday’s round. He only lost the tournament by 3 shots.

My card for the tournament was “not so good”. No outright winners, no first round leaders, and my Top 20 bets lost as well. My tournament matchups broke even. I had a little success over the weekend with heads up matches, but ended the week down 11.6 units, bring my YTD position up 9.7 units for 2021.

As I’ve said many times, betting on PGA Tour golf is hard and it’s not like there is life changing money in play here. My unit size is small and I took enough money off the Senator and the Voice in our last round to last me for a while betting tour golf. Your Hack does this for fun. I just wish I could do it better sometimes.

Well, on to the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill this week. Let’s do the work this week and find some winners. Keep it in the short grass (even though the Creek is closed again today after a weekend of rain!).

Gambling, Golf

World Golf Championships – The Concession

Let’s start this week off with a nice video from No Laying Up exploring The Concession Golf Club. Also, your Hack was finally able to play golf yesterday. It was my first full round since February 5th, when we played Plantation Lakes against the boys from Ocean City. Cripple Creek is finally open after a VERY long spell of bad weather. I played ok – 4 over on a soggy wet course with greens that haven’t been cut or rolled in forever. Overall, a very nice day on the links. Now, on to the WGC at The Concession.

The Concession has never hosted a PGA Tour event, but it did host the NCAA Championships in 2015. Our big boy Bryson won that event. I’m still hesitant to put any hard earned bankroll on DeChambeau, but 20-1 is a good value so I’ll take a piece. I do think the event will probably be won by one of the Top players, but I’m still going to sprinkle some long odds outright bets among some of the long shots at +8000 and higher. My One and Done (OAD) pick for the week is Jon Rahm. Finau 2nd place finish last week jumped me from 145th to 33rd in my OAD pool so I need a strong Rahm finish to keep moving up.

I going somewhat heavy on Rahm, Bryson, Hatton, and “Dr. Evil” P. Reed this week. Here’s the card. I’ll probably be adding some 3 Ball bets later this morning for today’s round.

Betting Card

OutrightsUnitsOdds
Rahm1.001000
DeChambeau0.502000
Hatton0.502000
Reed0.453000
Im0.303500
Scheffler0.304000
Niemann0.305500
Zalatoris 0.206000
Fitzpatrick0.306000
Leishman0.208000
Wolff0.159000
Hojgaard0.3011000
Griffin0.3012500
Champ0.1015000
Detry0.1015000
5 Units Total on Outrights
First Round LeaderUnitsOdds
Brooks0.403000
Scheffler0.304000
Wolff0.306000
1 Unit Total on FRL
Top 20UnitsOdds
Griffin1.00300
Woodland1.00350
2 Units Total on Top 20
Tournament MatchupsUnitsOdds
Berger > Simpson1.35-135
Zalatoris > Homa2.60-130
Keopka > DeChambeau2.00135
Im > Scheffler1.00100

NOTE: I’m betting Keopka over Bryson as a small “hedge” in case the big boy falters. Probably not smart. We’ll see,

Good luck!

Gambling, Golf

Genesis Recap – Homa Cookin’

Now we know why Max Homa is your Hack’s favorite golfer! After hitting a wedge to a little over 3 feet on the 72nd hole at the Genesis, in true Hack fashion he misses the putt for birdie and has to go into a playoff against Tony Finau, who shot the round of the day (64).

How cool was it that the first playoff hole was #10 instead of replaying 18. With no crowds, the PGA used the deadly, drivable par 4 as the first playoff hole this year. To be honest, when Max hit is drive came to rest against a tree left of the green, I thought Finau would finally get his first win since the PR event a couple of years ago and break his remarkable streak of 38 top 10s in the last 120 starts. But no, Max hooded and flicked a little sand wedge onto the green and made par, while Finau left his 10 footer for the win short. When Finau couldn’t get up and down from the bunker on the 2nd playoff hole, my guy made par for the win and paid off your Hack’s 2 winning tickets at 55-1 and 50-1. It was a fantastic Sunday night sweat. Here’s the chip from Max.

All of this led to a very good week at the Genesis – outright winner, 3 of 4 tournament match-up winners and 4-2-2 in daily match-ups. Overall, we ended up 33.7 units to bring the year-to-date bankroll to a positive 21.4 units. This kind of thing doesn’t happen very often when betting PGA tour golf, but I’m happy to have cashed the tickets.

On to a WGC event this week at the Concession in Florida (this tournament was moved from Mexico because of Covid) and it will be great to see this course on TV. I was listening to a podcast this morning from “No Laying Up” and the host said that he’d heard from a couple of Concession members that they were slowing down the greens in preparation for the PGA event. Slowing them down! They have their Member Guest the next week and they want to be able to dial the greens back up after the tour leaves – crazy.

There will also be an opposite field event in PR for the pros that do not qualify for the World Golf Championship. Two (2) betting opportunities this week – I’m debating running with this hot hand or being conservative and protecting the bankroll. Let’s go!

Gambling, Golf

The Genesis Invitational Betting Card

Final Round:

No bets yesterday and I’m happy – must have seen the high wind delay and a Sunday morning finish to the 3rd round coming? This afternoon should be fun as Sam Burns fell back shooting 74 and bringing DJ, Homa, Fitzpartrick and others back into the game. With DJ only 2 shots back and playing with Burns in the final group, there will be a lot of pressure on Burns. DJ is at +160 to win and Burns is +325. I’m using the remainder of my free bet funds to make a live bet on DJ as a hedge to my outrights on Homa, who is only 2 back.

Two (2) matchup plays today. I’m taking Homa (-110) for 1.1 units over Fitzpatrick and Finau (-120) for 1.2 units over Hovland.


The Cut:

A 64 followed up by a 66? At Riv? Sam Burns is torching the place and leading at -12, 5 shots ahead of Tyler McCumber, Kokrak, DJ, and Niemann. My boy – Max Homa – is at -6. Place a live bet on Sam Burns to win? You’ll only get +225, while DJ is at +250. Plus, Burns ranks 167th in third-round scoring, with Sunday not providing much of a respite (144th), according to PGA Tour stats. Although he tied the course record for 36 hole score for the tournament, I think I’ll pass. Your Hack thinks it’s more likely that he’ll back up or will be caught by Sunday.

And, how about McCumber playing with a bandaged hand because a complete fingernail had to be removed after a run in with his hotel window? Hurts to even think about it.

Although the official Homa > Smith bet lost yesterday, the free bet on Spieth’s 3 ball victory resulted in a 1.5 unit win for the day. Your Hack also won all of the tournament match-ups as each opponent missed the cut – up another 5 units. Some big names missed the cut, including some of my outrights – Big Boy Bryson and Bubba. JT and Rory are also going home for the weekend, but I had no money on them fortunately.

Seven (7) of your Hack’s outright bets made it through the cut and Homa, Cantlay and Cam Davis are in the top 10. Should have a good sweat over the weekend, especially with Max (0.5 units @ +5100 on 2 tickets) – and he’s only 6 shots back. Fingers crossed.

No bets on today’s matches yet. Want to look at the early players, the wind, etc. and might pick a later match to bet prior to tee times later this afternoon.


Friday Morning Update:

The Big Man couldn’t handle Riv yesterday – Bryson shot a smooth 75 (+4) in round one. After the foul ball drive on 18 that went way, way right, Bryson said “Man, this driver is so sensitive!” You know it’s 2021 when even golf clubs are snowflakes. Word has it that he was grinding on the range under the lights last night to work things out.

Other big names in danger of missing the weekend are JT, with a rocking 77 (+6) and Rory, with a so so 73 (+2). Even Morikowa is at even par. The other big names? Rahm 70 (-1), Brooks 68 (-3), DJ 68 (-3), and Spieth 68 (-3). The lead is held by Sam Burns who shot a blistering 64 (-7) and has a 2 shot lead Fitzpatrick and my guy, Max Homa. Remember I have Max at 50-1 to win this thing.

My head to head match yesterday was a push, but I naturally lost all my first round leader bets because I stayed off Burns. So down 2.75 units so far on my “official bets”. However, an interesting thing happened yesterday – the online sportsbook that I use had given me $250 in free bets so I decided to use $50 of the free money to bet on Niemann over Piercy and Duncan in yesterday’s 3-ball match. I placed the bet early yesterday and then realized I had NOT checked the “Free Roll” box on the betting form so I had a nice sweat yesterday afternoon with a real $50 on the line. Luckily, Niemann came through and I won a real $45.45. And, I still have the free bet money which I’ll probably use today.

For today’s matches, I’m “officially” placing 1 unit on Homa (-105) over Cam Smith and your Hack is using $50 in free bets to put 1/2 on Homa (+100) over Walker/Cam Smith and 1/2 on Spieth (+105) over Munoz/Kuchar.


It’s time for your Hack to start making a comeback with his PGA Tour betting bankroll. Currently down a little over 12 units for the year, let’s see if the “Riv” can get us on the road back. Two (2) big questions this week: Will every player attempt to drive the par 4 10th hole? And, will Bryson, playing for the first time in three (3) months, dominate the course?

The Genesis Invitational at Riviera CC is an invitational event featuring 120 players (Berger withdrew earlier in the week) with the cut after round 2 for the top 65 and ties. The best players in the world are here, and the course tends to play as one of the more difficult tracks on the PGA TOUR’s rotation outside of the the major championship venues. Again, no spectators this week.

Riviera Country Club is a classic Par 71 playing just over 7300 yards and features fast poa green surfaces. I think it clearly favors bombers, premium iron play from 170 and out, and grinders that can get up and down when green are missed. Course experience and knowledge around Riv has proven critical when you look at past winners. 14 of the last 15 winners at the Genesis have played the event at least 5 times. The sportsbooks have the winning score prop at around -13.5. The conditions this week should be absolutely perfect and fairways running as firm and fast as kikuya grass will allow. I’d expect the best players in the world to rise to the top, and don’t love the outlook for longshots – but I but for fun as well.

As you know, I like to bet long shots generally. Because of the course, I’m going to sprinkle in some lower odds bets with larger amounts to start rebuilding the bankroll. Let’s see how it goes.

A quick update: The Hack and Mrs. Hack received their second Covid vaccine shot this week and no reactions noted. We are looking forward to begin venturing out and reclaiming a social life over the next few weeks.

Betting Card

One and Done Pick: Tony Finau

OutrightsUnitsOdds
Cantlay0.701400
Hovland0.353000
Homa0.205500
DeChambeau1.001200
Koepka0.502200
Bubba0.503500
Cam Davis0.308000
Doc Redman0.2022500
Wolff0.305500
Ortiz0.306000
List0.2014000
Homa0.305000
Griffin0.2011000
Ghim0.3020000
First Round LeaderUnitsOdds
Scheffler0.205500
Hoffman0.206000
Reavie0.159000
Dahmen0.2010000
Kang0.2012500
DJ0.801400
Bubba0.404000
Niemann0.304500
Redman0.3012500
Tournament MatchupsUnitsOdds
Wolff> Ortiz1.00105
Davis > Connors1.00-125
Brooks > DeChambeau2.00155
ThursdayUnitsOdds
Hideki > Hovland2.10-105

Gambling

The Pebble Beach Pro Am Recap

Exciting finish for sure, but not for your Hack’s bankroll. Happy President’s Day. We continue to be sidelined by the weather and course closures here in DelMarVa and I’m not sure when I’ll be able to actually play golf next. It’s been 10 days since playing a complete 18 hole round.

Daniel Berger won for the second time since the tour came back from the Covid hiatus last year cementing his comeback from injury which saw him fall out of the Top 100 in the World Golf Rankings. This win projects to move him into the 13th spot. Jordan was not able to grab the win, but his T4 last week and T3 this week seems to indicate that he’s definitely on the road back from oblivion. How about poor Nate Lashley who’s 4 putt cost him the lead on the back nine? And, Maverick McNealy- birdieing 5 of the last 8 holes for a back nine 31 – almost closing the deal added to the excitement. His 4th round 66 left him one shot back of Berger for a solo 2nd. He did win the award for “club twirl” of the week however. Danielle Kang was over the moon for her boyfriend.

No a bad 3 iron on 18 to make birdie and tie for the lead. It was good for a potential playoff until Berger smashed a 3-wood to 30 feet and made the putt for eagle.

Your hack was riding Cantlay this week and his putting left him on the back 9 and he fell to 3rd place tie with Spieth. One the positive side, it was my first One and Done pick to make the cut this year. Ironically, I had Berger last week in Pheonix where he naturally missed the cut.

My week ended down 6.5 units (down 12.3 units YTD). I was 2 units down on match-ups and none of my Top 5, 10, or 20 picks came through. Did I hear someone say that betting on PGA Tour golf is hard? Yeah, I remember – it is.

On to the Genesis Invitational next week at Riviera where Tiger will play host. The field is strong, but the host naturally won’t be playing coming off his back surgery. Adam Scott was last year’s winner. Time to start looking at stats and odds and get this ship back on course.

Gambling, Golf

Pebble Beach Betting Card

Sunday Morning Update:

Spieth! Is today the day? I really, really would like to see Jordan pull through and win today, but he’s only +160 so not worth the wager. Your Hack’s fingers will be crossed anyway. On the other hand, I still have my Cantlay ticket to win and he’s only 2 back. It should be a fun day. Yesterday’s matches resulted in a push on the Grace wager, but a 2 unit loss on Reavie (ouch) who didn’t play well. We’re back at it in the final round with 2.4 units on N. Taylor > Steele, 1.2 units on NeSmith > Moore and 1.2 units on Piercy > Hubbard.


Saturday Morning Update:

My guys – Cantlay and Bhatia – backed up a little yesterday, but we still have three (3) players in the top 4 and only two (2) of the outright bets failed to make the cut. I’ve added outrights on Molinari (0.2 units @ +6600) and Kizzaire (0.1 units @ +15000) as they both shot up the board yesterday and look to be playing well. I hit with the Spieth bet yesterday, but Homa lost by a shot to Casey so we only netted a 0.1 unit win for the day. Today, your Hack is taking Reavie over Hoffman (2.4 units) and Grace over Hubbard (1.1 units). The weather looks to be tough at Pebble today and Reavie is a good wind player. Grace is also steady and Hubbard had a tough day yesterday almost missing the cut.


Friday Morning Update:

Before I get to the update, take a look at this driver “stinger” from Si Woo Kim yesterday. Roasted, with only a 13 foot apex. As the announcer said: “saucey . .”

Your Hack had a nice hit yesterday with Knox (+135) over Herman/Mitchell for a 1 unit win. I’m coming back with two (2) 3-Ball bets for today’s round @ 1 unit each. Homa (+170) over Casey/Mickelson and Spieth (+110) over Fowler/Taylor. Also feeling good about my outright ticket on Cantlay (leads after tying the course record 62) and my Top 5 and Top 20 tickets on Bahtia who’s only 2 back after hitting all 18 greens a Pebble yesterday. LFG boys!


This year, because of COVID-19 restrictions, play will be held at Pebble Beach and Spyglass Hill, with no spectators or pro-am players. After the 36-hole cut, the final two rounds will be played at Pebble Beach. The winner of this week’s AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am will earn $1.404 million from the $7.8 million purse. Second place is a mere $850,200!

As I said, because of COVID-19 precautions, the customary field of business, sports and celebrity amateurs will not compete this year alongside PGA Tour players. Thank goodness – Your Hack doesn’t really want to watch even worse hacks hack up Pebble. Maybe the course setup will be a little tougher with the Am’s there as well. There have been some significant withdrawals – Dustin Johnson for one. There are 0 top 10 players in the field this week.

Pebble #18

The tournament is the fourth event on the five-week West Coast Swing, which concludes next week with the Genesis Invitational at Riviera Country Club in Pacific Palisades, Calif. The elevated status of the Genesis and the cash grab at the Concession in Florida in the next few weeks have probably left the Pebble Beach Pro Am in the wind for the top players.

This might be the week for long shots. Nick Taylor won this event last year at +16000 (160/1 odds). I’m going a little lighter this week and betting more of these longer odds players.

For a short odds bet, the play must be Patrick Cantlay at 10-1. Cantlay almost won two weeks ago at PGA West, and he has not finished worse than 17th since his victory at the Zozo. Cantlay is primed for another solid season and I’m hoping this week can produce a win – 1 full unit on Cantlay at +1000. I’ve also taken Max Homa who is my FOMO bet this week, even at the 33-1 odds. Overall, I’m placing 2.8 units on outright winners this week and will hold some of my bankroll for live betting once all boys are on Pebble Saturday and Sunday.

Outrights

WinnerUnitsOdds
Cantlay1.001000
Homa0.353300
Day0.303500
Davis0.254000
Norlander0.206000
Malnati0.206000
Dahmen0.206500
Hubbard0.158000
Varner III0.1511000

Top 5, 10, 20 Wagers

Top 5Units Odds
Bahtia 0.20 5000
Baker0.20 6600
Top 10Units Odds
Streelman0.50 300
Top 20 Units Odds
Bahtia 0.40 750
Baker 0.20 1400
Pebble #9

Concerns About Betting on the PGA Tour

Justin Thomas, a member of the player’s advisory council has laid out some specific concerns about betting on PGA Tour results. You can read about it at the link below. What are your thoughts about this? Valid concern?

JT’s Concerned About Betting

Just can’t leave without one last look at Pebble . . . here’s the 4th hole. Good luck this week and I’ll update this post with any tournament match-ups and Thursday match wagers prior to the first tee time tomorrow.

Pebble #4
Gambling

Waste Management Pheonix Open – Recap

Congratulation to the Bash Bros! DJ takes the crown in Saudi Arabia and Brooks Keopka wins the WPO.

Your Hack didn’t see that coming today, but Brooksy’s win at Pheonix saved the betting card. Our pre-tournament wager on Keopka at +40000 (40/1) paid off handsomely, although it was only 0.25 units from the bankroll. We ended the tournament up 2.73 units thanks to the Brooks’ outright and Harold Varner III sneaking into the Top 20, and breaking even on our tournament and daily betting matchups. Of course, I’m kicking myself for betting 2 units on Jordan to win early Sunday morning. It could of been a really nice week without that wager.

Brooks stormed back with 2 eagles on the day, shooting 65 and winning by one shot over KH Lee and Xander. After missing 3 straight cuts, nagging hip and knee injuries, and splitting with his coach – Claude Harmon III – Keopka has again become part of the golf conversation. He crashed Jordan’s and Xander’s hopes as both of the leaders played poorly to bring the rest of the field back into the tournament Sunday afternoon. His eagle chip in sealed it on the 17th hole.

I thought Golf Digest put it well last night – “The measure of Koepka as a stone-cold hard-ass was evident not with his chip-in for the lead, but for his second shot into the green at the par-5 15th hole. Playing partner James Hahn, who held a three-stroke lead with eight to go, had just hooked his second shot into the water. Hitting next, Koepka blistered a 6-iron from 239 yards just over the flag, setting up an 18-footer for eagle. Ruthless stuff. He two-putted for birdie to climb into a share of the lead.”

Shane Ryan wrote a live blog during Jordan’s final round yesterday and captured how I felt as a Spieth fanboy. So much hope, too much reality for sure. Click on the link below to read.

Diary of a Jordan Spieth Fan

On to Pebble Beach this week. We are now down 3.1 units year-to-date. Yes, it’s hard to wager on golf, but it’s fun. Looks like there is only a slim chance of playing some golf this week due to weather, but your Hack’s fingers are crossed.d

Gambling, Golf

Waste Management Pheonix Open Betting Card

Final Round – Sunday AM Update:

My goodness! What else could happen? DJ wins in the Kingdom, even after being used as a sniper by the Saudi Crown Prince to eliminate a political opponent. Side note: He’s won 10 times since Jordan Spieth’s last win.

Then we have Spieth doing Spieth things and shooting a blistering 61 at the WMO and he’s not tied for the lead with Zander. What’s this world coming to?

Your Hack did ok yesterday winning Homa over Palmer and pushing Stanley over An. My outrights are not looking great though as Keopka is the only bet even close to the top. This tournament can be won from behind though, so I’m keeping the faith.

When I looked at the odds last night, Jordan was +220 to win (that’s $2.20 for every $1 bet Mr. Boteler). Your Hack took the bait and put 2 units on the Golden Child.


Saturday AM Update:

So I guess my relatively conservative play from yesterday was a mistake as Spieth’s eagle on the back nine put him ahead of Billy Ho by 1 shot – another booked loss.

Two (2) plays today: Homa (+100) over Palmer and Stanley (+100) over An for today’s round. Both for 1 unit.

Burns (T4), NeSmith (T8) and Keopka (T8) are currently in the Top 10 for my outright winner bets, but 6 of my guys missed the cut.

Friday AM Update:

I squeaked through yesterday winning the Fritelli 3-ball with him shooting only even par. Fortunately, I’d put a full unit on him as “Killer Kieth” Mitchell (0.5 units) shot +4 and was smoked by his 3-ball partners. Alas, no hit on my first round leader (FRL) bets this week. NeSmith and Hubbard (Hubb’s) tied for FRL at -8.

Only one (1) bet Friday – Horschel (+120) over Spieth/Pan. 1 Unit – should be a relatively conservative play.


Thursday AM Update: Today’s 3-Balls and Tournament Match-ups

Your Hack updated his betting card this morning putting 0.50 units on Norlander > List (-110), Straka > Knox (-110), and Redman > Moore (+115) in Tournament Match-ups. For today’s 3-Balls – 1 unit on Frittelli > Long/Merritt (+150) and 0.50 units on Mitchell > Zack Johnson/Poston (+220).

I also choose Webb Simpson Daniel Berger for my One and Done (OAD) contest this week. My OAD picks in the prior two (2) tournaments both missed the cut so take that for what it’s worth. I’m currently DFL in that contest!


Welcome to the “Greatest Show on Grass” in Arizona. This week’s Pheonix Open features a stronger field compared to past history and is even allowing about 5,000 fans to attend the event. The normal “shit show” on the par 3 16th stadium hole will not be as raucous, but it will be nice to see fans at a golf event again. Webb Simpson was the winner in 2020 and I like him to finish well again this week. I’m not betting him however as I think this is more of a bomber’s course. His putting may make me wish I’d bet him though. We’ll see.

Your Hack’s betting card is a little more extensive this week, as I am playing First Round Leaders for the first time this year. The last two (2) tournaments had players on multiple courses so I stayed away. Here’s the card.

First Round Leader Bets: 1.7 Units

First Round LeaderUnitsOdds
Berger0.30 2800
Zalatoris0.303300
Im0.303300
Palmer0.303500
Watson0.254000
Dahmen0.1011000
Gordon0.1015000

Outrights – Overall Winner: 2.7 Units

OutrightsUnitsOdds
Im 0.403000
Watson0.254000
Brooks0.254000
Zalatoris0.254500
Connors0.156600
Burns0.157000
Homa0.208000
Steele0.1258000
Kirk0.1259000
Norlander0.1010000
Fritelli0.1012500
Straka0.1012500
Clark0.1012500
Redman0.1017500
Higgs0.1020000
Holmes0.1020000
NeSmith0.1022500

Top 5 – 10 – 20 Bets: 2.9 Units

Top 5UnitsOdds
Vanrner III0.304000
Redman0.303300
Kirk0.501800
Norlander0.402000
Top 10UnitsOdds
Fowler 0.40 400
Reavie0.201300
Top 20UnitsOdds
Homa 0.50300
Varner III0.30650

I’ll be spending some time today researching tournament match-ups and Thursday 3-balls. The betting card will be updated later tonight or early Thursday before play begins.

The USGA and R&A issued some long awaited direction on the “distance debate” including a proposal to reduce the maximum driver shaft length from 48″ to 46″. Here is a summary of their proposals from Golf Digest if you are interested.

USGA/R&A get specific about a distance rollback, but no timeline yet

Gambling, Golf

Golf Season Has Officially Begun (Farmers Wrap)

Wow! What a weekend in the Golf world at Torrey Pines. My boys didn’t come through on Sunday and, as a result, your Hack ended up down 4.4 units for the week. I lost all of the Sunday matches I’d bet and won only one of the tournament matchups. This brings me to down 5.8 units for the year. Not great, but remember that golf betting is hard. You can review my betting card (if you are even interested) here: Farmers Betting Card

Now, let’s talk about the real story. Patrick “The Slayer” Reed. I cannot express how much I dislike this guy. Sure, he can play golf, but he is a cheater. He’s been a cheater since day 1 and continues to be a cheater. He won the tournament by 5 at 14 under and shot 68 on Sunday with all the controversy of Saturday’s “embedded” ball ruling. I think Sunday’s performance just shows that he is a sociopath. That’s why the 11th ranked player in the world has to buy his clothes at Dick’s Sporting Goods. It’s time for other players on Tour to speak out and to make it loud and clear. The Slayer’s antics have been going on for far too long and the PGA Tour has been effectively condoning his behavior. This article by Gary van Sickle provides a good recap.

Reed runs away with 5-stroke victory at Torrey Pines but proves to be game’s biggest loser in more meaningful category: Integrity

Captain America is now golf’s most hated villain – it’s great content for Twitter and the media, but a sad day for golf.

Feel good story of the week – Paul Casey wins at the Omega Dubai Desert Classic. Here is a link to a recap and a nice story about the 43 year old. “I feel like I’ve regained my youth,”

This week is the Pheonix Open which is usually the greatest shit show on earth is officially called “The Greatest Show on Grass”. There will be some spectators allowed, but my guess is that the usual over the top behavior will be dialed down this year. Last year’s winner was Webb Simpson. Weird happening this week? Riggs, from the Barstool Sports’ podcast Foreplay, has been invited to play in the Wednesday Pro-Am. Good luck buddy.

The weather here continues to force the closing of our course – Cripple Creek. We are currently riding through a winter storm with snow, then rain, then snow and some harsh winds. Hopefully by Wednesday your Hack can get back out to play. Fingers crossed.

Gambling, Golf

Farmers Insurance Open

The Final Round:

Two bets yesterday – see below – and both came through, nice. On the other hand, I only have Scott (T2), Palmer (T8) and Zalatoris (T8) left in the Top 10 for the outright win. Zalatoris was the only one to shoot under par Saturday. Need one of these guys to go low today. Homa is 5 shots back at T17, but will have to pass a lot of players to win. A 62 or 63 might do it?

My tournament match-ups – see below – are not doing well. Deki, my biggest bet, is 8 shots down to Hovland and Straka, who’s playing like trash, is 6 shots down to Ghim. Finau and Xander are tied after 3 rounds so that’s a toss up. Not looking great.

My final round bets – Lewis over Poston (-105) and Molinari over List (+105) – 1 unit each.


Adds on Saturday Morning:

Well that worked out. Palmer smoked English & Holmes in their 3-ball and I covered by lost bet from the opening round. Two (2) plays added for today (Round 3): 1 Unit on Cam Davis > Woodland/Huh @+150 and 1 Unit on Norlander > Straka @ -110.

My outrights are looking good for the weekend as your Hack has 6 guys within 4 shots of the lead which is held by Hovland at -9. More importantly, Hadwin is at +9000, Noren is at +10000, Homa is at +12500! LFG fellas!

POSPLAYERSCORER1R2R3R4TOTAL
T2Adam Scott-86769136
T2Ryan Palmer -86670136
T11Alex Noren -66474138
T14Will Zalatoris-56871139
T14Adam Hadwin -56970139
T14Max Homa-57168139

Adds on Friday Morning:

Outrights: Leishman .20 units @ +5000 & Hadwin .15 units @ +9000 | Both played well on the harder South Course yesterday and have the easier North Course today to make up ground. Also – placed 1 unit on Palmer over English & Holmes at +120. I lost the Thursday 3-ball wager that I thought was a lock as Hossler played unbelievably well so I’m hoping to get back even betting Palmer today.


The Farmers Insurance Open starts today at Torrey Pines, which will also host the U.S. Open this year in June. The field is not as strong in 2021 as years past. Tiger’s nursing his ailing back. DJ is not playing and JT is over in the desert.

Your Hack is fading the favorites this year – Rahm +650, Rory +800, Xander +1100, and Finau +1800. What fun is gambling if you bet low odds, right? I’ve bet 3 units overall among outright winners (see card below) and have five (5) bets at 100-1 or better, including Max Homa who was in the final group last week, but had a poor last round. Max is my favorite player because he acts like such a normal guy, he’s a blast on social media, and his podcast with Shane Bacon (Get A Grip) is sometimes hysterical. Also, he’s proven he can win – see Wachovia (Wells Fargo Championship) in 2019.

OutrightsUnitsOdds
Matsuyama0.402500
Wolff0.303300
Scott0.304000
Palmer0.305000
Woodland0.205500
Smith0.205500
Davis 0.206000
Zalatoris0.306000
Noren0.2010000
Homa0.1012500
Huh0.2012500
List0.2015000
Holmes0.1017500

For Tournament Match-ups, I’m betting 5 units favoring longer hitters on the Torrey Pines track. My biggest bet is on Matsuyama to best Hovland. I’m thinking Deki’s irons are coming around so that he will pepper flags and not have to rely too much on that shaky putting. Finau should be able to beat Xander easily. Tony is in great form (although he can’t seem to win) while Schauffele has been struggling recently.

MatchUnitsOdds
Matsuyama>Hovland2.00-130
Brooks>English1.00125
Straka>Ghim1.00-115
Finau>Schauffele1.00100

My last bet is a Thursday 3-ball match where I’m taking Cam Davis to roast Bo Hossler and Zhang. Short odds, but I want to start the week off with a win.

MatchUnitsOdds
Davis>Hossler/Zhang1.00-105

That’s it for the Farmers – TV coverage starts today at Noon on Golf Channel.

Let’s Go Max Homa!