Gambling, Golf

The American Express – Recap

With two (2) great birdies on #16 and #17 and a smooth par on #1, Si (F’ing) Woo Kim saved your Hack’s betting card for this week’s PGA tournament – The American Express. Wooooooooo! His par on 18 put Si Woo at 23 under, beating Patrick Cantlay by 1. Cantlay, who made the cut on the number, carded 30 birdies over the weekend in a charge that looked unbeatable until my boy came through at the last. It was Si Woo’s second win on tour. My favorite player – Max Homa – was also in the final group but faded on Sunday going from tied 1st to a T21 after shooting 4 over in the final round.

As you will recall (see my American Express Betting Card), I had Si Woo to win at +6000 (60/1) for 0.20 units. The outright salvaged a poor week of betting match-ups where I lost 9 units over tournament match-up bets and round match-ups each day.

This sorry state of affairs was made worse by a stupid mistake. Your Hack took Kizirre over Moore in one of the tournament match-ups bets, but clicked on Moore as the winner at the online sports book. Naturally my choice – Kizirre – won, but my bet had been placed on Moore. In the immortal words of Roberto Di Venczo; “. . . what a stupid I am . . .” Roberto spoke these immortal words after signing the wrong scorecard (65 rather than 66) after the 1968 Masters to lose to Bob Goalby by 1.

Overall, we finished the week losing just 1.375 units – as I said betting on golf is hard. Of course it’s harder when you mistakenly pick the wrong guy!

Congratulations to Jessica Korda for her win over the Danielle Kang in the season opener on the LPGA. Here she is making a long birdie out on the first play-off hole to take the win.

On to the Farmers Insurance Open this week at Torrey Pines. Last year’s winner was Marc Leishman who shot 65 on Sunday to beat Jon Rahm in 2020. I’ll be back Wednesday with my card.

Gambling, Golf

The American Express Betting Card

Good morning. Several of the touts that I follow are betting Brooks to win this week. It looks like he has new Srixon irons in the bag and is talking like he plans to compete this week even though it’s not a major. I’m not buying it – he started the week at +1800 to +2000, 2nd or 3rd favorite in the sports books. I’m not taking Brooks or P-Reed this week. (see my card below)

Course Preview

The Stadium Course at PGA West was the 10th easiest course on Tour in 2016 and the 20th easiest Course in 2017. The par 72 Pete Dye course will be around 7200 yards with four par 3s, four par 5s, and 10 par 4s. The par 5s are much longer and more difficult than the other courses. The par 5s here are notoriously difficult to reach in two. The fairways are average in size and gets narrow near the landing areas. The rough is light but golfers will have to deal with bunkers and a lot of water is in play on wayward drives and approaches. If golfers miss wildly off the tee and are able to avoid the water and bunkers, they will have to deal with dormant grass which will be similar to the rough but will be less lush and a bit more patchy. The greens are small with trouble all over the place. There are island greens, 200 yard carries over water on par 3s, and enormously deep bunkers. The greenside bunker on 16 is over TWENTY FEET deep. If you remember a few years ago, Mickelson on Sunday hit it into the bunker on 16 and couldn’t get his first attempt over the lip, costing him a chance at catching the leaders. The last three holes on this course are tough with the bunkers on 16, an island green on 17 (called Alcatraz), and a tough par 4 with water on 18. Golfers will need to hit their spots and be as accurate as possible on their approach shots to succeed at this course.

The Jack Nicklaus Tournament Course at PGA West is a 7,200 yard, par 72 course with four par 3s, four par 5s, and 10 par 4s. All the par 5s will be reachable by most golfers. The course has hosted PGA Tour Qualifying Tournaments and a 59 has been shot here in tournament play in the past. This course is not very difficult as it was the second easiest course on Tour four years ago and was the 11th easiest course on Tour three years ago even though weather conditions weren’t great. The fairways will be average to large in width with many bunkers and water in play off the tee on many holes. The greens will be undulating, multi tiered, and on the large side with bunkers and water surrounding most greens. Like the other course, the greens will be bermudagrass with a stimpmeter rating of around 11.

Your Hack’s Betting Card for AmEx

Outrights UnitsOdds
Wolff.0502200
Ancer0.402500
Champ0.353500
Kim0.206000
Burns 0.255500
Long 0.205000
Redman0.1259000
C. Davis0.1758000
Straka0.1259000
Streelman0.1012500
An0.1012500
Piercy0.1011000
NeSmith0.1012500
TOP 10UnitsOdds
NeSmith0.501200
Gooch0.50700
Ancer0.50250
Hadwin0.50700
Wolff0.50220
Henley0.50300
Top 20UnitsOdds
Straka1.00330
Tournament MatchupsUnitsOdds
Howell III>Casey1.00-115
Straka>Dahmen1.00-125
Piercy>McNealy1.00105
Kizzire>Moore1.00-120
ThursdayUnitsOdds
Wolff>Na & Finau1.00175

As you can see, I’m going with some more longer odds in this week’s card. Wish me luck. Remember, Landry was the 2020 winner – talk about a longshot!