Gambling, Golf

The Honda Classic

Wrap-up:

Crushing Sunday for your Hack. 1-3 in match-ups, Lowry continued to fold after a strong start (see video), and Wise 4-putts his way to a T3 shooting 73, 75 on the weekend to kill my last remaining outright chance. The dude had a 6 shot lead late Saturday afternoon and finishes T13! Congratulations to Matt Jones for overcoming a pairing with the original Human Rain Delay and coming through with a runaway win.

Overall for the week, we ended down 9.27 units, bringing the YTD total to a 10.10 unit loss. Moving on to the Match Play this week in Houston. Remember, golf betting is hard.


Sunday AM Update:

Your Hack was not able to post Saturday, but Friday’s action was terrific. Lowry came through and won his 3-ball for a 5.5 unit win. Unfortunately, he played miserably yesterday and fell from 5th to 18th which doesn’t look good for my outright or top 20 bet on him. I’m going to move off Lowry today and fade him in my match-up bets. Speaking of outrights, I was pumped that Wise jumped into first by a few shots on Friday, only to drop back after a tough day yesterday when Matt Jones regained the lead – by 3 shots no less. I see him falling back today and like C.T. Pan as a live bet at 20-1 to win this. He shot 65 yesterday in tough conditions and I’m putting a 0.50 unit bet on him to win.

I did not wager anything Saturday which was probably good. The wind made for some up and down rounds and only 6 or 7 players were under par.

Today’s final round should be great – more carnage for sure. I still have two (2) players in the top 5, Wise & Tringale, so there is some hope there for consecutive outright winning bets.

Here are my matchups for today’s final rounds:

McGirt (+160) > Schenk – 1 unit

Streelman (-120) > Higgs – 2 units

HV III (+100) > Lowry – 1 unit

Davis (-125) > Hadwin – 3 units


Friday AM Update:

Your Hack was looking good Early Friday afternoon on the “First Round Leader” front with Wise only one shot back. Then Matt Jones went berserk and birdied the last three (3) holes in the Bear Trap to shoot 61 and lead by three. I have to admit, I didn’t see that coming – what a great round.

Stacking on Lowry looks like the right move (at least after one round). He’s tied 6th after a tough day putting and is six (6) shots ahead of Westwood in my tournament matchup bet. In addition to Lowry, we have Henley & Wise tied 2nd, Tringale tied 6th, and Kizzire tied 12th.

I didn’t bet any matchups yesterday, but you Hack is doubling down on the Lowry hunch today putting 5 units on Lowry (+115) over Phil & ZJ in today’s 3-balls. I see Shane continuing his strong play and Zack fading. Phil shot 71 (1 over) on Thursday and is tied 71st – might not make the cut.


PGA National is a par 70, 7,100 yard host to the Honda Classic. Known for the Bear Trap, the field is pretty weak this year as most of the Top 20 players are taking a pass. That’s a shame because this can be a very exciting tournament with traditionally windy conditions on a tough course. Blame the schedule.

Last year’s winner – Im – is hoping for a repeat, but I’m fading him on my betting card. No putter and inconsistent play this year. Berger was my favorite going into the week and I placed a bet on him at +1100, but he announced a last minute withdrawal on Wednesday night citing a rib injury. So, no bet there. We also had three (3) Wd’s this week because of players testing positive for Covid.

Your Hack is hanging his hat on the portly Irishman who happens to love windy conditions and only lives 5 minutes from PGA National – Shane Lowry. I have 0.40 units (+3000) on him to win, 1 unit (+135) to Top 2 and placed 2 units (-145) on him to best Westwood in a tournament match-up. Lowry is also my One and Done pick this week.

Of course, it was St. Patrick’s Day yesterday and Lowry drew an 8AM tee time this morning – what could go wrong?

Outrights:

OutrightsUnitsOdds
Berger (Withdrew – no bet)1.501100
Niemann0.502200
Scott0.502500
Lowry0.403000
Gooch0.403000
Henley0.503000
Tringale0.255000
Davis0.255500
Poulter0.206600
Wise0.207000
Kizzire0.158000
Mickelson0.158000
Varner0.208000
K.H. Lee0.159000
Bryan0.1511000
Donald0.1022500

First Round Leader:

First Round LeaderUnitsOdds
Niemann0.402800
Scott0.303500
Tringale0.255000
An0.206600
Ghim0.206000
Wise0.158000
Huh0.158000
Schwartzel0.159000

Top 20:

Top 20UnitsOdds
K.H. Lee1.00300
Lowry1.00135

Tournament Match-ups:

Tournament MatchupsUnitsOdds
Lowry > Westwood2.00-145
Long > Nesmith1.00-135
Ventura > Nesmith1.00135
Streelman > Brandley1.00-115

Golf

Here’s What Happens When Your Name is On Your Ball

When I play golf, I use the Titleist Pro v1 golf ball with “Golf Hack” stamped on the ball for identification. As you can see, this can lead to some tricky situations. I got a email last night asking if I lost something yesterday.

One of my “balls” on a neighbors deck?

It turns out that a neighbor had found one of my old balls – stamped with “Golf Hack” in black – in their yard and placed it on another neighbors deck. Your Hack didn’t even play golf yesterday! I guess I have an expectation that people who know me would return the Hack’s golf balls when found. I can assure you they will be found in strange places because, as you know, your Hack favors the “big right miss”.

Found the missing ball . . .

Regular readers will remember that I had a ball mysteriously “disappear” after a beautiful tee shot on #18 a couple of weeks ago. See Where Did the Ball Go? Well, your Hack has an announcement that resolves the mystery. I was playing with the Senator and our Assistant, Ryan on Sunday and we were all looking for Ryan’s tee shot on the same hole that had been pulled left. During the search, another member – Sueann – was walking home from the club and called us over to identify a ball near the cart path just short of the practice putting green. Turns out if was your Hack’s Titleist from a couple weeks back. My “lost” drive had evidently hit the cart path running along the 18th hole and bounded forward about 40 extra yards from where we had been searching at the time. There was a little road rash on the ball to confirm the collision. I’m telling the Voice that I want my money back.

The Bet . . . Almost

I had an interesting email exchange with one of my golfing buddies and a good friend who happens to be 80. He reads by betting blogs and asked what the odds were that he would be able to shoot is age from the Senior (Gold) tees? Your Hack responded that the odds were about the same as me shooting my age (66) from the Tips. The “elderly” gentleman then proposed an even odds bet as to who would be the first to accomplish the goal this year. I accepted but proposed that the wager should be from the modified Black/White tee combination because I do not get to play the Tips very often – most of the guys I play with won’t agree to “play back”. I’m waiting to hear.

Playing Golf in Nice Weather . . .

I’d almost forgotten what it was like to play golf on a dry course, with freshly rolled greens and warm, sunny weather. Like a light switch, southern Delaware spring like weather flicked on this week and your Hack was able to play Wednesday in windy, 68 degree conditions under sunny skies. The superintendent had rolled the greens and it was shocking. I should have spent my warm up time practicing putting to get a feel for the greens rather than mindlessly smashing driver in the hopes of finding a swing.

Playing with Hastings, the Sheriff and the Councilman, I made the turn in 40 after three (3) 3-putts and a ball in the water on #6. I was hitting the ball well, but the flat stick was baffled by the green speed as it took 20 putts to complete the nine. The front was little better with 16 putts, but no birdies on the day. No more 3-putts, but I tried to drive the green on #11 from the front tees that ended with the ball embedded inside the hazard on the right (penalty stroke) and a missed up and down. Another penalty stroke on #17 when I hit my drive into the water (the big right miss again), but I was able to make par by sinking a curling 10 footer. Final result: 6 over with three (3) penalty shots, three (3) 3-putts, 12/18 greens hit, 8/13 fairways hit.

Overall, similar to my previous four (4) rounds since the Cripple Creek reopened after February’s deluge of rain and cold. These were – 75, 72, 76, 73 on a course playing short, with slow greens, preferred lies and a par of 70. I’m really looking forward to April 1st and beginning of the 2021 golf season when we can get back to real golf, eliminate the mats on the par 3’s and #1 and put the flag back on the green on #14. Then I can see if any of the changes I made over the winter will really hold up.

The Masters is only four (4) weeks away and The Hootie is only five (5) weeks away. I’m heading out to play today at 11AM with the boys. Keep it in the short grass.

Gambling, Golf

The Players Championship

Recap:

Thank You JT – Well Played

Fairways and greens, just like Hogan. JT salvaged your Hack’s week at the Players Championship by hitting 17 of 18 greens (he missed the 18th by inches), hitting fairways all day, and losing 2 shots to the field putting. Still, his 68 was good enough to overtake Westwood and the Big Bruiser for the win. My early Monday bet at 20-1 paid off – thank you again JT.

Still, your Hack ended the week down 0.57 units mostly due to a 1-7 record on matchup bets. I’ll take a basically breakeven week and move on to the Honda down 0.83 units for the year.


Sunday Update:

Your Hack had a blast yesterday watching Spieth do Spieth things on PGA Tour Live. The best was accidentally hitting into Sabbatini yesterday. “Is that Sabbatini? Oh, God. I couldn’t pick a worse person to hit into.” The conversation was picked up in the “Every Player Live” coverage, but the PGA Tour has scrubbed the video from all social media platforms. Geoff Shackleford explains and has the video – click the link here: The QUAD

Maybe it’s because I lost an hour of sleep last night, but I’m starting to like Westwood more and more. But, at 48 years old, you have to wonder if he can hold off JT, the Big Bomber, Rahm and Sergio today. My money – literally – is on Justin Thomas to win. He birdied the first four (4) holes yesterday and shot 64 to move within 3 shots of the lead. JT is my most “live” early pick at +2000. I’ve also have Kirk in 8th and Si-Woo in 11th. LFG!

Poor Denny McCarthy couldn’t get anything going yesterday until he birdied #11 to give fans of our somewhat local favorite some hope, but in true Hack fashion went on to bogey #12 and #13 and then double #14 to shoot 75 and fall 10 shots back. Bummer!

My late match-up bets ran 1-1 yesterday, but Cantlay’s missed cut added another loss. Your Hack is 1-6 this week in match-up bets, down 6.8 units. Let’s see if we can salvage something today by taking Moore (-115) over Steele, HV3 (-120) over Hadwin, and Niemann (-135) over Todd for 2.5 units each.


Saturday Update:

Another tough day at the Players. Sergio misses a one foot putt, but remains in contention. Some big names, including Rory and Bubba, missed the cut. And, poor Viktor Hovland’s Mom called him from Norway to tell him that he didn’t replace his coin properly when he marked his ball on the 15th hole. He was in the parking lot at the time after leaving the course. Being a dutiful son (and an honorable golfer), Viktor contacted the Tour and after reviewing video, it was found that he moved his mark in the opposite direction of what was required and was hit with a 2 stroke penalty for playing his shot from the wrong place. He wasn’t DQ’d for signing an incorrect scorecard because he unknowingly violated a rule. However, the 2 shot penalty pushed him to +2 for the tournament and the cut was at even par.

Your Hack went 0-2 on his 3-ball wagers which brings us to 0-4 in betting matches this week. Odds have not been posted yet for Round 3 matches as play was called for darkness last night and they have to finish up Round 2 this morning. I’ll be back later with any wagers on today’s matches.

I did place some live outright bets earlier this morning: 0.25 units on Gooch (+4500); 0.25 units on DJ (+4500) and 0.20 units on Frittelli (+6000).


Friday Update:

Hard to believe they couldn’t get the first round completed last night. Also, I really enjoyed the every player/every shot coverage on PGA TourLive. I think I’d pay for that at every tournament.

There was some carnage out there for sure and I wonder how many balls will find the water on #17 today. You gotta feel bad for these Euros, but how about Sergio? Who would have picked him as the first round leader!

Your Hack didn’t get anything out of yesterday’s round. 0-2 on the 3-ball plays and another goose egg on my first round leader bets. No worries though. I’m plunging back in today with a 2 unit bet on Munoz (+125) over Thompson/Gay and 1 unit on Reavie (+135) over Perez/Watson.


Hard to believe it was one year ago that Matsuyama made 9 birdies and led the Players after the 1st round. Of course, the tournament was cancelled when the world freaked out about Covid. As we return to the Players, your Hack and Mrs. Hack have received both vaccine shots, our weather in Delaware has finally turned warm, and golf continues to be played on a regular basis. I’m so excited, I’m using Deki in my One and Done (OAD) this week and I’m putting a few shekels on him as First Round Leader (FRL).

JT is the Hack’s Favorite @ 20-1

I’m lightening up the card this week, initially betting only 8 units to start the tournament. The last couple of weeks have been tough and I want to conserve bankroll. Your Hack likes JT and Finau overall, but also Cantlay. I’ve somewhat hedged my Justin Thomas bet to win with a tournament match-up betting Cantlay over JT. I’ve also returned to three-balls for bets on today’s first round.

The PGA Tour is allowing free access today for the every player, every shot live feed on PGA TOUR LIVE. Here’s the link: Watch Every Shot Live at The Players Championship

Betting Card

First Round LeaderUnitsOdds
DJ0.502500
Hovland0.404000
Cantlay0.303500
Deki0.205000
Scheffler0.205000
Am0.1012500
Outrights UnitsOdds
JT0.502000
Finau0.402800
Day0.254500
Scheffler0.205000
Scott0.156600
Zalatoris0.157000
Homa0.159000
Connors0.1010000
Si Woo Kim0.1012500
Kirk0.1014000
Palmer0.1014000
Davis0.1014000
Bradley0.1015000
Tournament MatchupsUnitsOdds
DJ>Bryson1.00-135
Cantlay> JT1.00-110
Thursday 3-BallsUnits Odds
Mitchell>Garmett/Merrot1.00150
Redman> Schwatzt/Higgs1.00150
Gambling, Golf

The Arnold Palmer Invitational

Tournament Recap

This is about all I can say . . . . the Thick Boy wins by 1. They needed a bigger red cardigan! Fun fact: Bryson joins Tiger as the only players to have won a US Open, US Am, Memorial (Jack’s tournament) and Bay Hill (Arnie’s tournament). Nice company.

It was a tough week for your Hack at Bay Hill. 10.8 units lost on outright, Top 20 and first round leader bets only partially offset by 1.8 units won on match-ups bets. The 9 unit loss for the week brings be back to even (actually down 0.25 units) for the year. My best chances this weekend were Hovland and Spieth, but young Hov faded from 3rd to 49th over the weekend and Jordan just couldn’t come through on Sunday as his putting let him down in the final round.

A few friends have been asking me what the size of a unit is in my bankroll. Let me be clear that I bet on PGA Tour golf for fun, not for a living. My total bankroll for golf wagering was 100 units at the beginning of the year. It now stands at 99.75 and I typically bet between 15 and 20 units a week on tournaments. The size of a unit is not really important to disclose just rest assured that your Hack is not going to need to beg, borrow, or steal any money from his friends to cover this disgusting habit.

So, it’s on to the Players Championship this week. After two (2) lowing weeks in a row, a comeback is in the cards.


Round 4 Plays

Two (2) adds this morning early. Casey (-115) over Fitzpatrick and D. Lee (-105) over Todd). Come on Spieth and Hovland, let’s win this thing.


Round 3 Plays

A sweep yesterday as both Casey and Willy Z. came through in their Friday Matches for a smooth 2.1 unit win. Zalatoris also won the tournament matchup against Billy Ho who missed the cut. I’m sticking with Zalatoris (-115) over Fleetwood today and adding Rory (-120) over Hovland and Laird (+115) over Conners. 1 unit on each match.

Your Hack is ready for a weekend sweat with four (4) outrights in the Top 7 after Friday – Hovland (T3), Im (T7), Spieth (T7) and Casey (T7). Also, Werenski (T11) and Fitpatrick (T11) are both within 5 shots of the lead. Of course, Rory is putting like crazy and that’s kind of scary, but I think one of my boys can take down Conners and Laird over the weekend. LFG!

This looked familiar to me and then I remembered that the Senator faced the same situation recently in Florida in a match against the Voice. Small world.

The Senator’s Ball on a Recent Florida Golf Trip

Round 2 Plays

Rory and Corey tied at the top with the Big Bruiser just one shot back. No, he didn’t try to drive the green on the par 5 6th hole, but still might this week. Oosty withdrew about three (3) seconds before the tournament began so it’s a “No Bet” for my outright pick and the tournament matchup versus Jordan. With those bets refunded, I’m adding three (3) more outrights – Casey @ +2500, Werenski @ +25000 and Hubbard @ +30000. Two (2) really long shots at just 0.10 units each and a more conservative bet using 0.50 units.

Your Hack split his Thursday matches with Jordan beating Justin but Reed losing to Hovland. We are coming back today with 2 units on Casey (-135) over Na and 1 unit on Zalatoris (-135) over Jones.

Before I go . . . Is this the coolest man ever?


The API at Bay Hill starts today and here’s my betting card. Before we start, have a look at some very cool technology featuring my boy, Max Homa.

Arnie’s place – Bay Hill – is always one of the toughest courses on the tour rotation and when the wind blows (as expected) there could be carnage. See last year when Hatton won at only 4 under. I’m gonna take a pice of Lord Tyrrell at +1600 to repeat. I’m going a little heavier on outright bets this week with a mix of “Studs & Duds” this week.

OutrightsUnitsOdds
Hovland0.851200
Hatton0.651600
Im0.502000
Fitzpatrick0.502200
Spieth0.502800
Day0.453000
Oosthuizen0.353000
Zalatoris0.404000
Davis0.206500
Tringale0.206500
Fowler0.207000
Kisner0.208000
Hoffman0.159000
Jones0.1511000
Top 10UnitsOdds
List1.00900
Molinari1.00270
Tournament MatchupsUnitsOdds
Hovland > DeChambeau1.00-115
Day > Matsuyama1.00-120
Spieth > Oosthuizen1.00130
Zalatoris > Horschel1.00100
First Round LeaderUnitsOdds
Spieth0.254000
Kokrak0.254500
Zalatoris0.205000
Davis0.206000
Gooch0.206600
Jones0.158000
NeSemith0.159000
Stanley0.1010000
Mitchell0.1010000
ThursdayUnitsOdds
Reed > Hovland1.00-105
Spieth > Rose1.00-115

Weather looks nice again today at Cripple Creek and your Hack is heading out to play a friendly round. Then, it’s back to watch the first round of the API unfold. Good luck everyone.

Gambling

More like a Concussion – The Concession Recap

Big congratulations to Collin Morikawa for a terrific win. I debated putting money on him at 50-1 after the first round, but mistakenly held off. A bummer for sure, but I just wasn’t sold on his putting. But the dude can flush iron after iron like it’s the easiest thing in the world. Kudos for sure. I’m buying some stock in Hovland as well. He’s seems like such a great kid and came through with a T2nd at this event. Finally a shoutout to Nelly Korda for taking down the 2nd LPGA event of the year. BTW, her sister won the first one. This sister act is strong.

I do believe The Concession should be a permanent PGA Tour stop. Yesterday was very exciting coming down the stretch as the leaderboard was stacked with great players and the chance of a 3 or 4 shot swing was in play on many of the closing holes. How much fun was it watching ball after ball roll off the green on 13 on Saturday? With severe runoffs around the greens and tricky greens, this course can blow up a round. Case in point, Kisner was playing great and in contention the first two (2) days and then shot 80/72 over the weekend. Or, young Hovland’s quad on #9 to end Friday’s round. He only lost the tournament by 3 shots.

My card for the tournament was “not so good”. No outright winners, no first round leaders, and my Top 20 bets lost as well. My tournament matchups broke even. I had a little success over the weekend with heads up matches, but ended the week down 11.6 units, bring my YTD position up 9.7 units for 2021.

As I’ve said many times, betting on PGA Tour golf is hard and it’s not like there is life changing money in play here. My unit size is small and I took enough money off the Senator and the Voice in our last round to last me for a while betting tour golf. Your Hack does this for fun. I just wish I could do it better sometimes.

Well, on to the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill this week. Let’s do the work this week and find some winners. Keep it in the short grass (even though the Creek is closed again today after a weekend of rain!).

Cripple Creek, Golf

Where Did the Ball Go?

Let’s be honest. Cripple Creek is playing much like a pitch and putt these days. Temporary tees on all the pars 3’s reduce each one to a wedge shot. The temporary tee on #1 and the forward tees on 7, 8, 11, 14, and 15 significantly reduce the length of these holes and the temporary “green” on #14 make it a par 4 rather than a par 5 in our matches. Although the winter cold and wind, combined with the hairy and bumpy greens, make winter golf more difficult, the rounds and matches described in this blog need to be read with the understanding that the Creek is playing much easier these days.

With all that said, your Hack played well in yesterday’s match. The Senator, The Voice and I took on Dewey, Doc Martin and Decker in a best net ball of three (3) game. We were a little concerned that Doc’ and Decker’s 13 handicaps would be problematic with the Senator and The Voice playing to an 8 handicap, but the match proved competitive. Our threesome came in at 6 under compared to our opponent’s 4 under. Your Hack was 1 under on his own ball net on the front which definitely helped that cause.

The more interesting part of the day was the 9 point match in our group which flamed up quickly. The Senator had a tough day. Maybe tough is saying it too nicely. In reality it was SO bad that he wanted out of the bet after the front nine. Given that I had the biggest win of any of our matches this winter, except for a few notable Wolf games, his declaration that the 9 point match was ending after the ninth (9th) hole was understandable. The Voice was not exactly a factor on the front nine either, but played well enough to add a couple of net birdies for our team.

On the 10th green, The Voice and I realized that we needed a bet for the back nine. I was on the green in regulation and he was just off the front of the green after hitting his wedge a little fat. We agreed on a $25, automatic 2 down match with me giving him 2 shots (17 & 18). Of course The Voice immediately drained his long, uphill shot from off the green for birdie and I missed -1 down! Your hack then 3 putted for bogey on #11 and Steve made a great up and down for par – 2 down and even on the press. After we both missed makable birdie putts on #12, we went to the 90-100 yard shortened par 3, #13. The Voice hit a nice wedge to about 10 feet while mine went wide right about 25 feet beyond the hole. Remarkably, I made the birdie putt and Steve missed – 1 down and 1 up. Following a lost ball into the marsh on #14 which led to Steve conceding the hole we went even, 2 up, and even into #15.

Your Hack hit 3 wood on 15 about 30 yards short of the green, but the Voice made the mistake left and his drive ended up in the pond. My easy par beat his bogey – 1 up, 3 up, and 1 up with 3 holes to play. Steve hit it on the lower level of the green – the pin was back right on the upper level – while my wiped 6 iron ended up short right. After attempting a flop shot over the corner of the bunker, I found myself slightly over the green after my flop failed to hold. Steve putted up about 8 feet short and made a solid par to beat my bogey – even, 2 up, and even. My par on 17 was halved by his bogey, net par and we headed to the last. The Voice stroked, I’d won the first press and we were even on the remaining two (2) bets.

Although we are playing 18 from the forward tees this winter which makes the hole much easier, it’s still a good finishing hole for match play. There is trouble right, trees and out of bounds. On the left is the 9th hole and green if over hook or pull a drive. Unfortunately, that was the situation for the Voice – his drive ended up in the bunker facing the 9th green. Your Hack had hit on the his best drives of the day and was sitting in the left side of the fairway about 150 or less to the green – or so we thought. I’d made such good contact on the shot, that I reached down and grabbed my tee after seeing the ball drawing from the right side of the fairway. However, as I was walking up the fairway I didn’t see my little white friend – anywhere! Steve hit is 2nd shot a bit heavy, and then his 3rd ricocheted off a tree and he was sitting 3 about 100 yards from the green. We still hadn’t found my ball. All of us walked up and down the fairway from 200 to 125 yards out looking for a plugged ball, a ball hiding under leaves, something. To be honest, we went a bit over the time limit, but still couldn’t come up with your Hack’s Titleist. I conceded the hole and The Voice was able to win the match two (2) ways to my one. Rub of the green?

Although the ending was strange, I was pleased with my play. I was 2 over par standing on the 18th tee – 11 pars, 4 bogeys and 2 birdies through 17 holes with 2 three putts. Nothing that can be posted this time of year, but the swing feels better and I’m looking forward to the Spring.

We have plans to play on Sunday, but it looks like the weather is not going to cooperate as we had rain overnight and it looks to rain most the day, off and on, today. More rain forecast overnight into Sunday. At least we have the WGC at The Concession to watch.

Gambling, Golf

World Golf Championships – The Concession

Let’s start this week off with a nice video from No Laying Up exploring The Concession Golf Club. Also, your Hack was finally able to play golf yesterday. It was my first full round since February 5th, when we played Plantation Lakes against the boys from Ocean City. Cripple Creek is finally open after a VERY long spell of bad weather. I played ok – 4 over on a soggy wet course with greens that haven’t been cut or rolled in forever. Overall, a very nice day on the links. Now, on to the WGC at The Concession.

The Concession has never hosted a PGA Tour event, but it did host the NCAA Championships in 2015. Our big boy Bryson won that event. I’m still hesitant to put any hard earned bankroll on DeChambeau, but 20-1 is a good value so I’ll take a piece. I do think the event will probably be won by one of the Top players, but I’m still going to sprinkle some long odds outright bets among some of the long shots at +8000 and higher. My One and Done (OAD) pick for the week is Jon Rahm. Finau 2nd place finish last week jumped me from 145th to 33rd in my OAD pool so I need a strong Rahm finish to keep moving up.

I going somewhat heavy on Rahm, Bryson, Hatton, and “Dr. Evil” P. Reed this week. Here’s the card. I’ll probably be adding some 3 Ball bets later this morning for today’s round.

Betting Card

OutrightsUnitsOdds
Rahm1.001000
DeChambeau0.502000
Hatton0.502000
Reed0.453000
Im0.303500
Scheffler0.304000
Niemann0.305500
Zalatoris 0.206000
Fitzpatrick0.306000
Leishman0.208000
Wolff0.159000
Hojgaard0.3011000
Griffin0.3012500
Champ0.1015000
Detry0.1015000
5 Units Total on Outrights
First Round LeaderUnitsOdds
Brooks0.403000
Scheffler0.304000
Wolff0.306000
1 Unit Total on FRL
Top 20UnitsOdds
Griffin1.00300
Woodland1.00350
2 Units Total on Top 20
Tournament MatchupsUnitsOdds
Berger > Simpson1.35-135
Zalatoris > Homa2.60-130
Keopka > DeChambeau2.00135
Im > Scheffler1.00100

NOTE: I’m betting Keopka over Bryson as a small “hedge” in case the big boy falters. Probably not smart. We’ll see,

Good luck!

Gambling, Golf

Genesis Recap – Homa Cookin’

Now we know why Max Homa is your Hack’s favorite golfer! After hitting a wedge to a little over 3 feet on the 72nd hole at the Genesis, in true Hack fashion he misses the putt for birdie and has to go into a playoff against Tony Finau, who shot the round of the day (64).

How cool was it that the first playoff hole was #10 instead of replaying 18. With no crowds, the PGA used the deadly, drivable par 4 as the first playoff hole this year. To be honest, when Max hit is drive came to rest against a tree left of the green, I thought Finau would finally get his first win since the PR event a couple of years ago and break his remarkable streak of 38 top 10s in the last 120 starts. But no, Max hooded and flicked a little sand wedge onto the green and made par, while Finau left his 10 footer for the win short. When Finau couldn’t get up and down from the bunker on the 2nd playoff hole, my guy made par for the win and paid off your Hack’s 2 winning tickets at 55-1 and 50-1. It was a fantastic Sunday night sweat. Here’s the chip from Max.

All of this led to a very good week at the Genesis – outright winner, 3 of 4 tournament match-up winners and 4-2-2 in daily match-ups. Overall, we ended up 33.7 units to bring the year-to-date bankroll to a positive 21.4 units. This kind of thing doesn’t happen very often when betting PGA tour golf, but I’m happy to have cashed the tickets.

On to a WGC event this week at the Concession in Florida (this tournament was moved from Mexico because of Covid) and it will be great to see this course on TV. I was listening to a podcast this morning from “No Laying Up” and the host said that he’d heard from a couple of Concession members that they were slowing down the greens in preparation for the PGA event. Slowing them down! They have their Member Guest the next week and they want to be able to dial the greens back up after the tour leaves – crazy.

There will also be an opposite field event in PR for the pros that do not qualify for the World Golf Championship. Two (2) betting opportunities this week – I’m debating running with this hot hand or being conservative and protecting the bankroll. Let’s go!

Gambling, Golf

The Genesis Invitational Betting Card

Final Round:

No bets yesterday and I’m happy – must have seen the high wind delay and a Sunday morning finish to the 3rd round coming? This afternoon should be fun as Sam Burns fell back shooting 74 and bringing DJ, Homa, Fitzpartrick and others back into the game. With DJ only 2 shots back and playing with Burns in the final group, there will be a lot of pressure on Burns. DJ is at +160 to win and Burns is +325. I’m using the remainder of my free bet funds to make a live bet on DJ as a hedge to my outrights on Homa, who is only 2 back.

Two (2) matchup plays today. I’m taking Homa (-110) for 1.1 units over Fitzpatrick and Finau (-120) for 1.2 units over Hovland.


The Cut:

A 64 followed up by a 66? At Riv? Sam Burns is torching the place and leading at -12, 5 shots ahead of Tyler McCumber, Kokrak, DJ, and Niemann. My boy – Max Homa – is at -6. Place a live bet on Sam Burns to win? You’ll only get +225, while DJ is at +250. Plus, Burns ranks 167th in third-round scoring, with Sunday not providing much of a respite (144th), according to PGA Tour stats. Although he tied the course record for 36 hole score for the tournament, I think I’ll pass. Your Hack thinks it’s more likely that he’ll back up or will be caught by Sunday.

And, how about McCumber playing with a bandaged hand because a complete fingernail had to be removed after a run in with his hotel window? Hurts to even think about it.

Although the official Homa > Smith bet lost yesterday, the free bet on Spieth’s 3 ball victory resulted in a 1.5 unit win for the day. Your Hack also won all of the tournament match-ups as each opponent missed the cut – up another 5 units. Some big names missed the cut, including some of my outrights – Big Boy Bryson and Bubba. JT and Rory are also going home for the weekend, but I had no money on them fortunately.

Seven (7) of your Hack’s outright bets made it through the cut and Homa, Cantlay and Cam Davis are in the top 10. Should have a good sweat over the weekend, especially with Max (0.5 units @ +5100 on 2 tickets) – and he’s only 6 shots back. Fingers crossed.

No bets on today’s matches yet. Want to look at the early players, the wind, etc. and might pick a later match to bet prior to tee times later this afternoon.


Friday Morning Update:

The Big Man couldn’t handle Riv yesterday – Bryson shot a smooth 75 (+4) in round one. After the foul ball drive on 18 that went way, way right, Bryson said “Man, this driver is so sensitive!” You know it’s 2021 when even golf clubs are snowflakes. Word has it that he was grinding on the range under the lights last night to work things out.

Other big names in danger of missing the weekend are JT, with a rocking 77 (+6) and Rory, with a so so 73 (+2). Even Morikowa is at even par. The other big names? Rahm 70 (-1), Brooks 68 (-3), DJ 68 (-3), and Spieth 68 (-3). The lead is held by Sam Burns who shot a blistering 64 (-7) and has a 2 shot lead Fitzpatrick and my guy, Max Homa. Remember I have Max at 50-1 to win this thing.

My head to head match yesterday was a push, but I naturally lost all my first round leader bets because I stayed off Burns. So down 2.75 units so far on my “official bets”. However, an interesting thing happened yesterday – the online sportsbook that I use had given me $250 in free bets so I decided to use $50 of the free money to bet on Niemann over Piercy and Duncan in yesterday’s 3-ball match. I placed the bet early yesterday and then realized I had NOT checked the “Free Roll” box on the betting form so I had a nice sweat yesterday afternoon with a real $50 on the line. Luckily, Niemann came through and I won a real $45.45. And, I still have the free bet money which I’ll probably use today.

For today’s matches, I’m “officially” placing 1 unit on Homa (-105) over Cam Smith and your Hack is using $50 in free bets to put 1/2 on Homa (+100) over Walker/Cam Smith and 1/2 on Spieth (+105) over Munoz/Kuchar.


It’s time for your Hack to start making a comeback with his PGA Tour betting bankroll. Currently down a little over 12 units for the year, let’s see if the “Riv” can get us on the road back. Two (2) big questions this week: Will every player attempt to drive the par 4 10th hole? And, will Bryson, playing for the first time in three (3) months, dominate the course?

The Genesis Invitational at Riviera CC is an invitational event featuring 120 players (Berger withdrew earlier in the week) with the cut after round 2 for the top 65 and ties. The best players in the world are here, and the course tends to play as one of the more difficult tracks on the PGA TOUR’s rotation outside of the the major championship venues. Again, no spectators this week.

Riviera Country Club is a classic Par 71 playing just over 7300 yards and features fast poa green surfaces. I think it clearly favors bombers, premium iron play from 170 and out, and grinders that can get up and down when green are missed. Course experience and knowledge around Riv has proven critical when you look at past winners. 14 of the last 15 winners at the Genesis have played the event at least 5 times. The sportsbooks have the winning score prop at around -13.5. The conditions this week should be absolutely perfect and fairways running as firm and fast as kikuya grass will allow. I’d expect the best players in the world to rise to the top, and don’t love the outlook for longshots – but I but for fun as well.

As you know, I like to bet long shots generally. Because of the course, I’m going to sprinkle in some lower odds bets with larger amounts to start rebuilding the bankroll. Let’s see how it goes.

A quick update: The Hack and Mrs. Hack received their second Covid vaccine shot this week and no reactions noted. We are looking forward to begin venturing out and reclaiming a social life over the next few weeks.

Betting Card

One and Done Pick: Tony Finau

OutrightsUnitsOdds
Cantlay0.701400
Hovland0.353000
Homa0.205500
DeChambeau1.001200
Koepka0.502200
Bubba0.503500
Cam Davis0.308000
Doc Redman0.2022500
Wolff0.305500
Ortiz0.306000
List0.2014000
Homa0.305000
Griffin0.2011000
Ghim0.3020000
First Round LeaderUnitsOdds
Scheffler0.205500
Hoffman0.206000
Reavie0.159000
Dahmen0.2010000
Kang0.2012500
DJ0.801400
Bubba0.404000
Niemann0.304500
Redman0.3012500
Tournament MatchupsUnitsOdds
Wolff> Ortiz1.00105
Davis > Connors1.00-125
Brooks > DeChambeau2.00155
ThursdayUnitsOdds
Hideki > Hovland2.10-105