Gambling, Golf

The Honda Classic

Wrap-up:

Crushing Sunday for your Hack. 1-3 in match-ups, Lowry continued to fold after a strong start (see video), and Wise 4-putts his way to a T3 shooting 73, 75 on the weekend to kill my last remaining outright chance. The dude had a 6 shot lead late Saturday afternoon and finishes T13! Congratulations to Matt Jones for overcoming a pairing with the original Human Rain Delay and coming through with a runaway win.

Overall for the week, we ended down 9.27 units, bringing the YTD total to a 10.10 unit loss. Moving on to the Match Play this week in Houston. Remember, golf betting is hard.


Sunday AM Update:

Your Hack was not able to post Saturday, but Friday’s action was terrific. Lowry came through and won his 3-ball for a 5.5 unit win. Unfortunately, he played miserably yesterday and fell from 5th to 18th which doesn’t look good for my outright or top 20 bet on him. I’m going to move off Lowry today and fade him in my match-up bets. Speaking of outrights, I was pumped that Wise jumped into first by a few shots on Friday, only to drop back after a tough day yesterday when Matt Jones regained the lead – by 3 shots no less. I see him falling back today and like C.T. Pan as a live bet at 20-1 to win this. He shot 65 yesterday in tough conditions and I’m putting a 0.50 unit bet on him to win.

I did not wager anything Saturday which was probably good. The wind made for some up and down rounds and only 6 or 7 players were under par.

Today’s final round should be great – more carnage for sure. I still have two (2) players in the top 5, Wise & Tringale, so there is some hope there for consecutive outright winning bets.

Here are my matchups for today’s final rounds:

McGirt (+160) > Schenk – 1 unit

Streelman (-120) > Higgs – 2 units

HV III (+100) > Lowry – 1 unit

Davis (-125) > Hadwin – 3 units


Friday AM Update:

Your Hack was looking good Early Friday afternoon on the “First Round Leader” front with Wise only one shot back. Then Matt Jones went berserk and birdied the last three (3) holes in the Bear Trap to shoot 61 and lead by three. I have to admit, I didn’t see that coming – what a great round.

Stacking on Lowry looks like the right move (at least after one round). He’s tied 6th after a tough day putting and is six (6) shots ahead of Westwood in my tournament matchup bet. In addition to Lowry, we have Henley & Wise tied 2nd, Tringale tied 6th, and Kizzire tied 12th.

I didn’t bet any matchups yesterday, but you Hack is doubling down on the Lowry hunch today putting 5 units on Lowry (+115) over Phil & ZJ in today’s 3-balls. I see Shane continuing his strong play and Zack fading. Phil shot 71 (1 over) on Thursday and is tied 71st – might not make the cut.


PGA National is a par 70, 7,100 yard host to the Honda Classic. Known for the Bear Trap, the field is pretty weak this year as most of the Top 20 players are taking a pass. That’s a shame because this can be a very exciting tournament with traditionally windy conditions on a tough course. Blame the schedule.

Last year’s winner – Im – is hoping for a repeat, but I’m fading him on my betting card. No putter and inconsistent play this year. Berger was my favorite going into the week and I placed a bet on him at +1100, but he announced a last minute withdrawal on Wednesday night citing a rib injury. So, no bet there. We also had three (3) Wd’s this week because of players testing positive for Covid.

Your Hack is hanging his hat on the portly Irishman who happens to love windy conditions and only lives 5 minutes from PGA National – Shane Lowry. I have 0.40 units (+3000) on him to win, 1 unit (+135) to Top 2 and placed 2 units (-145) on him to best Westwood in a tournament match-up. Lowry is also my One and Done pick this week.

Of course, it was St. Patrick’s Day yesterday and Lowry drew an 8AM tee time this morning – what could go wrong?

Outrights:

OutrightsUnitsOdds
Berger (Withdrew – no bet)1.501100
Niemann0.502200
Scott0.502500
Lowry0.403000
Gooch0.403000
Henley0.503000
Tringale0.255000
Davis0.255500
Poulter0.206600
Wise0.207000
Kizzire0.158000
Mickelson0.158000
Varner0.208000
K.H. Lee0.159000
Bryan0.1511000
Donald0.1022500

First Round Leader:

First Round LeaderUnitsOdds
Niemann0.402800
Scott0.303500
Tringale0.255000
An0.206600
Ghim0.206000
Wise0.158000
Huh0.158000
Schwartzel0.159000

Top 20:

Top 20UnitsOdds
K.H. Lee1.00300
Lowry1.00135

Tournament Match-ups:

Tournament MatchupsUnitsOdds
Lowry > Westwood2.00-145
Long > Nesmith1.00-135
Ventura > Nesmith1.00135
Streelman > Brandley1.00-115