Gambling

The Pebble Beach Pro Am Recap

Exciting finish for sure, but not for your Hack’s bankroll. Happy President’s Day. We continue to be sidelined by the weather and course closures here in DelMarVa and I’m not sure when I’ll be able to actually play golf next. It’s been 10 days since playing a complete 18 hole round.

Daniel Berger won for the second time since the tour came back from the Covid hiatus last year cementing his comeback from injury which saw him fall out of the Top 100 in the World Golf Rankings. This win projects to move him into the 13th spot. Jordan was not able to grab the win, but his T4 last week and T3 this week seems to indicate that he’s definitely on the road back from oblivion. How about poor Nate Lashley who’s 4 putt cost him the lead on the back nine? And, Maverick McNealy- birdieing 5 of the last 8 holes for a back nine 31 – almost closing the deal added to the excitement. His 4th round 66 left him one shot back of Berger for a solo 2nd. He did win the award for “club twirl” of the week however. Danielle Kang was over the moon for her boyfriend.

No a bad 3 iron on 18 to make birdie and tie for the lead. It was good for a potential playoff until Berger smashed a 3-wood to 30 feet and made the putt for eagle.

Your hack was riding Cantlay this week and his putting left him on the back 9 and he fell to 3rd place tie with Spieth. One the positive side, it was my first One and Done pick to make the cut this year. Ironically, I had Berger last week in Pheonix where he naturally missed the cut.

My week ended down 6.5 units (down 12.3 units YTD). I was 2 units down on match-ups and none of my Top 5, 10, or 20 picks came through. Did I hear someone say that betting on PGA Tour golf is hard? Yeah, I remember – it is.

On to the Genesis Invitational next week at Riviera where Tiger will play host. The field is strong, but the host naturally won’t be playing coming off his back surgery. Adam Scott was last year’s winner. Time to start looking at stats and odds and get this ship back on course.

Gambling, Golf

Pebble Beach Betting Card

Sunday Morning Update:

Spieth! Is today the day? I really, really would like to see Jordan pull through and win today, but he’s only +160 so not worth the wager. Your Hack’s fingers will be crossed anyway. On the other hand, I still have my Cantlay ticket to win and he’s only 2 back. It should be a fun day. Yesterday’s matches resulted in a push on the Grace wager, but a 2 unit loss on Reavie (ouch) who didn’t play well. We’re back at it in the final round with 2.4 units on N. Taylor > Steele, 1.2 units on NeSmith > Moore and 1.2 units on Piercy > Hubbard.


Saturday Morning Update:

My guys – Cantlay and Bhatia – backed up a little yesterday, but we still have three (3) players in the top 4 and only two (2) of the outright bets failed to make the cut. I’ve added outrights on Molinari (0.2 units @ +6600) and Kizzaire (0.1 units @ +15000) as they both shot up the board yesterday and look to be playing well. I hit with the Spieth bet yesterday, but Homa lost by a shot to Casey so we only netted a 0.1 unit win for the day. Today, your Hack is taking Reavie over Hoffman (2.4 units) and Grace over Hubbard (1.1 units). The weather looks to be tough at Pebble today and Reavie is a good wind player. Grace is also steady and Hubbard had a tough day yesterday almost missing the cut.


Friday Morning Update:

Before I get to the update, take a look at this driver “stinger” from Si Woo Kim yesterday. Roasted, with only a 13 foot apex. As the announcer said: “saucey . .”

Your Hack had a nice hit yesterday with Knox (+135) over Herman/Mitchell for a 1 unit win. I’m coming back with two (2) 3-Ball bets for today’s round @ 1 unit each. Homa (+170) over Casey/Mickelson and Spieth (+110) over Fowler/Taylor. Also feeling good about my outright ticket on Cantlay (leads after tying the course record 62) and my Top 5 and Top 20 tickets on Bahtia who’s only 2 back after hitting all 18 greens a Pebble yesterday. LFG boys!


This year, because of COVID-19 restrictions, play will be held at Pebble Beach and Spyglass Hill, with no spectators or pro-am players. After the 36-hole cut, the final two rounds will be played at Pebble Beach. The winner of this week’s AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am will earn $1.404 million from the $7.8 million purse. Second place is a mere $850,200!

As I said, because of COVID-19 precautions, the customary field of business, sports and celebrity amateurs will not compete this year alongside PGA Tour players. Thank goodness – Your Hack doesn’t really want to watch even worse hacks hack up Pebble. Maybe the course setup will be a little tougher with the Am’s there as well. There have been some significant withdrawals – Dustin Johnson for one. There are 0 top 10 players in the field this week.

Pebble #18

The tournament is the fourth event on the five-week West Coast Swing, which concludes next week with the Genesis Invitational at Riviera Country Club in Pacific Palisades, Calif. The elevated status of the Genesis and the cash grab at the Concession in Florida in the next few weeks have probably left the Pebble Beach Pro Am in the wind for the top players.

This might be the week for long shots. Nick Taylor won this event last year at +16000 (160/1 odds). I’m going a little lighter this week and betting more of these longer odds players.

For a short odds bet, the play must be Patrick Cantlay at 10-1. Cantlay almost won two weeks ago at PGA West, and he has not finished worse than 17th since his victory at the Zozo. Cantlay is primed for another solid season and I’m hoping this week can produce a win – 1 full unit on Cantlay at +1000. I’ve also taken Max Homa who is my FOMO bet this week, even at the 33-1 odds. Overall, I’m placing 2.8 units on outright winners this week and will hold some of my bankroll for live betting once all boys are on Pebble Saturday and Sunday.

Outrights

WinnerUnitsOdds
Cantlay1.001000
Homa0.353300
Day0.303500
Davis0.254000
Norlander0.206000
Malnati0.206000
Dahmen0.206500
Hubbard0.158000
Varner III0.1511000

Top 5, 10, 20 Wagers

Top 5Units Odds
Bahtia 0.20 5000
Baker0.20 6600
Top 10Units Odds
Streelman0.50 300
Top 20 Units Odds
Bahtia 0.40 750
Baker 0.20 1400
Pebble #9

Concerns About Betting on the PGA Tour

Justin Thomas, a member of the player’s advisory council has laid out some specific concerns about betting on PGA Tour results. You can read about it at the link below. What are your thoughts about this? Valid concern?

JT’s Concerned About Betting

Just can’t leave without one last look at Pebble . . . here’s the 4th hole. Good luck this week and I’ll update this post with any tournament match-ups and Thursday match wagers prior to the first tee time tomorrow.

Pebble #4