No bets yesterday and I’m happy – must have seen the high wind delay and a Sunday morning finish to the 3rd round coming? This afternoon should be fun as Sam Burns fell back shooting 74 and bringing DJ, Homa, Fitzpartrick and others back into the game. With DJ only 2 shots back and playing with Burns in the final group, there will be a lot of pressure on Burns. DJ is at +160 to win and Burns is +325. I’m using the remainder of my free bet funds to make a live bet on DJ as a hedge to my outrights on Homa, who is only 2 back.
Two (2) matchup plays today. I’m taking Homa (-110) for 1.1 units over Fitzpatrick and Finau (-120) for 1.2 units over Hovland.
A 64 followed up by a 66? At Riv? Sam Burns is torching the place and leading at -12, 5 shots ahead of Tyler McCumber, Kokrak, DJ, and Niemann. My boy – Max Homa – is at -6. Place a live bet on Sam Burns to win? You’ll only get +225, while DJ is at +250. Plus, Burns ranks 167th in third-round scoring, with Sunday not providing much of a respite (144th), according to PGA Tour stats. Although he tied the course record for 36 hole score for the tournament, I think I’ll pass. Your Hack thinks it’s more likely that he’ll back up or will be caught by Sunday.
And, how about McCumber playing with a bandaged hand because a complete fingernail had to be removed after a run in with his hotel window? Hurts to even think about it.
Although the official Homa > Smith bet lost yesterday, the free bet on Spieth’s 3 ball victory resulted in a 1.5 unit win for the day. Your Hack also won all of the tournament match-ups as each opponent missed the cut – up another 5 units. Some big names missed the cut, including some of my outrights – Big Boy Bryson and Bubba. JT and Rory are also going home for the weekend, but I had no money on them fortunately.
Seven (7) of your Hack’s outright bets made it through the cut and Homa, Cantlay and Cam Davis are in the top 10. Should have a good sweat over the weekend, especially with Max (0.5 units @ +5100 on 2 tickets) – and he’s only 6 shots back. Fingers crossed.
No bets on today’s matches yet. Want to look at the early players, the wind, etc. and might pick a later match to bet prior to tee times later this afternoon.
Friday Morning Update:
The Big Man couldn’t handle Riv yesterday – Bryson shot a smooth 75 (+4) in round one. After the foul ball drive on 18 that went way, way right, Bryson said “Man, this driver is so sensitive!” You know it’s 2021 when even golf clubs are snowflakes. Word has it that he was grinding on the range under the lights last night to work things out.
Other big names in danger of missing the weekend are JT, with a rocking 77 (+6) and Rory, with a so so 73 (+2). Even Morikowa is at even par. The other big names? Rahm 70 (-1), Brooks 68 (-3), DJ 68 (-3), and Spieth 68 (-3). The lead is held by Sam Burns who shot a blistering 64 (-7) and has a 2 shot lead Fitzpatrick and my guy, Max Homa. Remember I have Max at 50-1 to win this thing.
My head to head match yesterday was a push, but I naturally lost all my first round leader bets because I stayed off Burns. So down 2.75 units so far on my “official bets”. However, an interesting thing happened yesterday – the online sportsbook that I use had given me $250 in free bets so I decided to use $50 of the free money to bet on Niemann over Piercy and Duncan in yesterday’s 3-ball match. I placed the bet early yesterday and then realized I had NOT checked the “Free Roll” box on the betting form so I had a nice sweat yesterday afternoon with a real $50 on the line. Luckily, Niemann came through and I won a real $45.45. And, I still have the free bet money which I’ll probably use today.
For today’s matches, I’m “officially” placing 1 unit on Homa (-105) over Cam Smith and your Hack is using $50 in free bets to put 1/2 on Homa (+100) over Walker/Cam Smith and 1/2 on Spieth (+105) over Munoz/Kuchar.
It’s time for your Hack to start making a comeback with his PGA Tour betting bankroll. Currently down a little over 12 units for the year, let’s see if the “Riv” can get us on the road back. Two (2) big questions this week: Will every player attempt to drive the par 4 10th hole? And, will Bryson, playing for the first time in three (3) months, dominate the course?
The Genesis Invitational at Riviera CC is an invitational event featuring 120 players (Berger withdrew earlier in the week) with the cut after round 2 for the top 65 and ties. The best players in the world are here, and the course tends to play as one of the more difficult tracks on the PGA TOUR’s rotation outside of the the major championship venues. Again, no spectators this week.
Riviera Country Club is a classic Par 71 playing just over 7300 yards and features fast poa green surfaces. I think it clearly favors bombers, premium iron play from 170 and out, and grinders that can get up and down when green are missed. Course experience and knowledge around Riv has proven critical when you look at past winners. 14 of the last 15 winners at the Genesis have played the event at least 5 times. The sportsbooks have the winning score prop at around -13.5. The conditions this week should be absolutely perfect and fairways running as firm and fast as kikuya grass will allow. I’d expect the best players in the world to rise to the top, and don’t love the outlook for longshots – but I but for fun as well.
As you know, I like to bet long shots generally. Because of the course, I’m going to sprinkle in some lower odds bets with larger amounts to start rebuilding the bankroll. Let’s see how it goes.
A quick update: The Hack and Mrs. Hack received their second Covid vaccine shot this week and no reactions noted. We are looking forward to begin venturing out and reclaiming a social life over the next few weeks.
One and Done Pick: Tony Finau
|First Round Leader||Units||Odds|
|Davis > Connors||1.00||-125|
|Brooks > DeChambeau||2.00||155|
|Hideki > Hovland||2.10||-105|