Gambling

More like a Concussion – The Concession Recap

Big congratulations to Collin Morikawa for a terrific win. I debated putting money on him at 50-1 after the first round, but mistakenly held off. A bummer for sure, but I just wasn’t sold on his putting. But the dude can flush iron after iron like it’s the easiest thing in the world. Kudos for sure. I’m buying some stock in Hovland as well. He’s seems like such a great kid and came through with a T2nd at this event. Finally a shoutout to Nelly Korda for taking down the 2nd LPGA event of the year. BTW, her sister won the first one. This sister act is strong.

I do believe The Concession should be a permanent PGA Tour stop. Yesterday was very exciting coming down the stretch as the leaderboard was stacked with great players and the chance of a 3 or 4 shot swing was in play on many of the closing holes. How much fun was it watching ball after ball roll off the green on 13 on Saturday? With severe runoffs around the greens and tricky greens, this course can blow up a round. Case in point, Kisner was playing great and in contention the first two (2) days and then shot 80/72 over the weekend. Or, young Hovland’s quad on #9 to end Friday’s round. He only lost the tournament by 3 shots.

My card for the tournament was “not so good”. No outright winners, no first round leaders, and my Top 20 bets lost as well. My tournament matchups broke even. I had a little success over the weekend with heads up matches, but ended the week down 11.6 units, bring my YTD position up 9.7 units for 2021.

As I’ve said many times, betting on PGA Tour golf is hard and it’s not like there is life changing money in play here. My unit size is small and I took enough money off the Senator and the Voice in our last round to last me for a while betting tour golf. Your Hack does this for fun. I just wish I could do it better sometimes.

Well, on to the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill this week. Let’s do the work this week and find some winners. Keep it in the short grass (even though the Creek is closed again today after a weekend of rain!).

Gambling, Golf

World Golf Championships – The Concession

Let’s start this week off with a nice video from No Laying Up exploring The Concession Golf Club. Also, your Hack was finally able to play golf yesterday. It was my first full round since February 5th, when we played Plantation Lakes against the boys from Ocean City. Cripple Creek is finally open after a VERY long spell of bad weather. I played ok – 4 over on a soggy wet course with greens that haven’t been cut or rolled in forever. Overall, a very nice day on the links. Now, on to the WGC at The Concession.

The Concession has never hosted a PGA Tour event, but it did host the NCAA Championships in 2015. Our big boy Bryson won that event. I’m still hesitant to put any hard earned bankroll on DeChambeau, but 20-1 is a good value so I’ll take a piece. I do think the event will probably be won by one of the Top players, but I’m still going to sprinkle some long odds outright bets among some of the long shots at +8000 and higher. My One and Done (OAD) pick for the week is Jon Rahm. Finau 2nd place finish last week jumped me from 145th to 33rd in my OAD pool so I need a strong Rahm finish to keep moving up.

I going somewhat heavy on Rahm, Bryson, Hatton, and “Dr. Evil” P. Reed this week. Here’s the card. I’ll probably be adding some 3 Ball bets later this morning for today’s round.

Betting Card

OutrightsUnitsOdds
Rahm1.001000
DeChambeau0.502000
Hatton0.502000
Reed0.453000
Im0.303500
Scheffler0.304000
Niemann0.305500
Zalatoris 0.206000
Fitzpatrick0.306000
Leishman0.208000
Wolff0.159000
Hojgaard0.3011000
Griffin0.3012500
Champ0.1015000
Detry0.1015000
5 Units Total on Outrights
First Round LeaderUnitsOdds
Brooks0.403000
Scheffler0.304000
Wolff0.306000
1 Unit Total on FRL
Top 20UnitsOdds
Griffin1.00300
Woodland1.00350
2 Units Total on Top 20
Tournament MatchupsUnitsOdds
Berger > Simpson1.35-135
Zalatoris > Homa2.60-130
Keopka > DeChambeau2.00135
Im > Scheffler1.00100

NOTE: I’m betting Keopka over Bryson as a small “hedge” in case the big boy falters. Probably not smart. We’ll see,

Good luck!