Congratulation to the Bash Bros! DJ takes the crown in Saudi Arabia and Brooks Keopka wins the WPO.
Your Hack didn’t see that coming today, but Brooksy’s win at Pheonix saved the betting card. Our pre-tournament wager on Keopka at +40000 (40/1) paid off handsomely, although it was only 0.25 units from the bankroll. We ended the tournament up 2.73 units thanks to the Brooks’ outright and Harold Varner III sneaking into the Top 20, and breaking even on our tournament and daily betting matchups. Of course, I’m kicking myself for betting 2 units on Jordan to win early Sunday morning. It could of been a really nice week without that wager.
Brooks stormed back with 2 eagles on the day, shooting 65 and winning by one shot over KH Lee and Xander. After missing 3 straight cuts, nagging hip and knee injuries, and splitting with his coach – Claude Harmon III – Keopka has again become part of the golf conversation. He crashed Jordan’s and Xander’s hopes as both of the leaders played poorly to bring the rest of the field back into the tournament Sunday afternoon. His eagle chip in sealed it on the 17th hole.
I thought Golf Digest put it well last night – “The measure of Koepka as a stone-cold hard-ass was evident not with his chip-in for the lead, but for his second shot into the green at the par-5 15th hole. Playing partner James Hahn, who held a three-stroke lead with eight to go, had just hooked his second shot into the water. Hitting next, Koepka blistered a 6-iron from 239 yards just over the flag, setting up an 18-footer for eagle. Ruthless stuff. He two-putted for birdie to climb into a share of the lead.”
Shane Ryan wrote a live blog during Jordan’s final round yesterday and captured how I felt as a Spieth fanboy. So much hope, too much reality for sure. Click on the link below to read.
On to Pebble Beach this week. We are now down 3.1 units year-to-date. Yes, it’s hard to wager on golf, but it’s fun. Looks like there is only a slim chance of playing some golf this week due to weather, but your Hack’s fingers are crossed.d
My goodness! What else could happen? DJ wins in the Kingdom, even after being used as a sniper by the Saudi Crown Prince to eliminate a political opponent. Side note: He’s won 10 times since Jordan Spieth’s last win.
Then we have Spieth doing Spieth things and shooting a blistering 61 at the WMO and he’s not tied for the lead with Zander. What’s this world coming to?
Your Hack did ok yesterday winning Homa over Palmer and pushing Stanley over An. My outrights are not looking great though as Keopka is the only bet even close to the top. This tournament can be won from behind though, so I’m keeping the faith.
When I looked at the odds last night, Jordan was +220 to win (that’s $2.20 for every $1 bet Mr. Boteler). Your Hack took the bait and put 2 units on the Golden Child.
So I guess my relatively conservative play from yesterday was a mistake as Spieth’s eagle on the back nine put him ahead of Billy Ho by 1 shot – another booked loss.
Two (2) plays today: Homa (+100) over Palmer and Stanley (+100) over An for today’s round. Both for 1 unit.
Burns (T4), NeSmith (T8) and Keopka (T8) are currently in the Top 10 for my outright winner bets, but 6 of my guys missed the cut.
Friday AM Update:
I squeaked through yesterday winning the Fritelli 3-ball with him shooting only even par. Fortunately, I’d put a full unit on him as “Killer Kieth” Mitchell (0.5 units) shot +4 and was smoked by his 3-ball partners. Alas, no hit on my first round leader (FRL) bets this week. NeSmith and Hubbard (Hubb’s) tied for FRL at -8.
Only one (1) bet Friday – Horschel (+120) over Spieth/Pan. 1 Unit – should be a relatively conservative play.
Thursday AM Update: Today’s 3-Balls and Tournament Match-ups
Your Hack updated his betting card this morning putting 0.50 units on Norlander > List (-110), Straka > Knox (-110), and Redman > Moore (+115) in Tournament Match-ups. For today’s 3-Balls – 1 unit on Frittelli > Long/Merritt (+150) and 0.50 units on Mitchell > Zack Johnson/Poston (+220).
I also choose Webb Simpson Daniel Berger for my One and Done (OAD) contest this week. My OAD picks in the prior two (2) tournaments both missed the cut so take that for what it’s worth. I’m currently DFL in that contest!
Welcome to the “Greatest Show on Grass” in Arizona. This week’s Pheonix Open features a stronger field compared to past history and is even allowing about 5,000 fans to attend the event. The normal “shit show” on the par 3 16th stadium hole will not be as raucous, but it will be nice to see fans at a golf event again. Webb Simpson was the winner in 2020 and I like him to finish well again this week. I’m not betting him however as I think this is more of a bomber’s course. His putting may make me wish I’d bet him though. We’ll see.
Your Hack’s betting card is a little more extensive this week, as I am playing First Round Leaders for the first time this year. The last two (2) tournaments had players on multiple courses so I stayed away. Here’s the card.
First Round Leader Bets: 1.7 Units
First Round Leader
Units
Odds
Berger
0.30
2800
Zalatoris
0.30
3300
Im
0.30
3300
Palmer
0.30
3500
Watson
0.25
4000
Dahmen
0.10
11000
Gordon
0.10
15000
Outrights – Overall Winner: 2.7 Units
Outrights
Units
Odds
Im
0.40
3000
Watson
0.25
4000
Brooks
0.25
4000
Zalatoris
0.25
4500
Connors
0.15
6600
Burns
0.15
7000
Homa
0.20
8000
Steele
0.125
8000
Kirk
0.125
9000
Norlander
0.10
10000
Fritelli
0.10
12500
Straka
0.10
12500
Clark
0.10
12500
Redman
0.10
17500
Higgs
0.10
20000
Holmes
0.10
20000
NeSmith
0.10
22500
Top 5 – 10 – 20 Bets: 2.9 Units
Top 5
Units
Odds
Vanrner III
0.30
4000
Redman
0.30
3300
Kirk
0.50
1800
Norlander
0.40
2000
Top 10
Units
Odds
Fowler
0.40
400
Reavie
0.20
1300
Top 20
Units
Odds
Homa
0.50
300
Varner III
0.30
650
I’ll be spending some time today researching tournament match-ups and Thursday 3-balls. The betting card will be updated later tonight or early Thursday before play begins.
The USGA and R&A issued some long awaited direction on the “distance debate” including a proposal to reduce the maximum driver shaft length from 48″ to 46″. Here is a summary of their proposals from Golf Digest if you are interested.
Strokes Gained Retired 